Key facts
- Bitcoin is down 4.1% this week, trading just under $83,000.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $484.9 million on Wednesday.
- Experts see support for Bitcoin at $77,000 based on on-chain metrics.
- Lower support levels are seen at $74,000 (Short-Term Holder Cost Basis) and $72,000 (200-day moving average).
- Bitcoin tested above $87,000 earlier in the week but failed to sustain the move.
- The average ETF investor is back at breakeven for the first time since January.
Bitcoin has experienced a significant downturn this week, with prices dropping 4.1% and U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) seeing substantial outflows. This decline occurs in October, a month historically known as "Uptober" for its positive performance in the leading cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin hit lows of $80,427 in the past week and is currently trading just under $83,000. Experts are warning that the cryptocurrency could continue to decline, with potential support levels identified between $72,000 and $77,000. Luke Deans, Senior Research Associate at Bitwise Europe, highlighted the $83,000 region as an interesting technical level, combining ETF cost basis and prior resistance.
If Bitcoin struggles to recover from below $83,000, Deans suggests lower structural support targets should be considered. Ananda Banerjee, Founder and Principal Quantitative Researcher at Charlie Quant Lab, identified $77,000 as the strongest support based on on-chain metrics, a view echoed by Deans regarding the True Market Mean. Deans also pointed to the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $74,000 and the 200-day moving average at $72,000 as independent technical references.
Bitfinex analysts noted that the recent move above $87,000 was driven by futures positioning rather than spot demand, which they identify as a "missing piece." They observed that average ETF investors are back at breakeven, a level historically associated with slow inflows. Can-Luca Köymen, Investment Strategist at Sygnum Bank, also commented on low spot volume hindering price action.
Wednesday saw the worst single-day outflow for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs since June 25, with BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC experiencing significant redemptions. While experts are hesitant to declare "Uptober" over based on a single week of losses, they emphasize that fundamental drivers like liquidity, positioning, and macro conditions are more critical than historical monthly trends. Jake Kennis, Senior Research Analyst at Nansen, stated that Bitcoin has historically posted a median October return of approximately 14% since 2013, with most Octobers finishing positive.