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Australia inflation tops forecasts in July, adds to rate risk

Created at 26 Aug · 1:46 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Australian consumer prices rose more than expected in July, driven by jumps in fuel and travel costs. Core inflation also exceeded forecasts, increasing the likelihood of further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Key Numbers

1.0%monthly CPI rise in July
0.8%forecasted monthly CPI rise
3.5%annual inflation pace in July
3.8%previous annual inflation pace
3.3%forecasted annual inflation rise
0.5%monthly core inflation rise
0.3%forecasted monthly core inflation rise
3.6%annual core inflation pace
3RBA rate hikes this year

Who's Involved

Australian Bureau of Statistics
released the monthly consumer price index data
Reserve Bank of Australia
hiking rates to combat inflation
Wayne Cole
Reuters reporter
Jacqueline Wong
Reuters editor

↳ Why This Matters

The higher-than-expected inflation figures in Australia increase the probability of further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia, potentially impacting economic growth and borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.

Key facts

  • Australia's monthly consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.0% in July, exceeding the 0.8% forecast.
  • The annual inflation rate slowed to 3.5% in July from 3.8%, below the 3.3% forecast.
  • Core inflation, measured by the trimmed mean, increased by 0.5% in July, surpassing the 0.3% forecast.
  • The annual pace of core inflation stands at 3.6%.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia has implemented three interest rate hikes this year to combat inflation.

Australian consumer prices increased more than anticipated in July, primarily due to rising fuel and travel expenses. The monthly consumer price index (CPI) recorded a 1.0% rise from June, surpassing the forecasted 0.8% increase. While the annual inflation rate slowed to 3.5% from 3.8%, this was still higher than the median forecast of 3.3%, as a significant increase from the previous year dropped out of the calculation.

Core inflation, as measured by the trimmed mean, also showed resilience, rising 0.5% in the month, which was well above the 0.3% expectation. This leaves the annual pace of core inflation at 3.6%. The Reserve Bank of Australia has been actively working to bring inflation back within its target band of 2% to 3%, having already implemented three interest rate hikes this year.

Frequently asked questions

Australia's monthly consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.0% in July compared to June.

The annual inflation rate slowed to 3.5% in July.

The trimmed mean measure of core inflation increased by 0.5% in July, bringing the annual pace to 3.6%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has hiked interest rates three times this year in an effort to control inflation.

What Happens Next

01The Reserve Bank of Australia will consider the latest inflation data in its upcoming monetary policy decisions.
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How It Developed

Australian consumer prices rose 1.0% in July from June.
The annual inflation pace slowed to 3.5% in July.
Core inflation rose 0.5% in July, with the annual pace at 3.6%.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has hiked rates three times this year.

Sources

T1
Australia inflation tops forecasts in July, adds to rate riskReuters
T2
Australia's consumer prices spike in July as electricity costs surge - CNBCcnbc.com
T2
Inflation: Stubborn July CPI adds to RBA interest rate hike threat ...couriermail.com.au

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