Russia is signaling a harder stance toward Armenia as Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's government pursues closer ties with the European Union, a move Moscow views as a geopolitical threat. Pashinyan appears to be taking recent Russian threats seriously, with a potential suspension of a nuclear cooperation deal with the United States in favor of a commitment to have Russia's Rosatom build Armenia's next-generation reactor.
Armenia has increasingly defied Russia, its traditional geopolitical partner, over the past two years. Pashinyan's government has downgraded security ties with Moscow and is reorienting its economy toward the EU, away from the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Russia, Armenia's dominant trade partner, has sought to maintain its influence in the South Caucasus through a combination of import bans and diplomatic overtures, but these efforts have largely failed to dissuade Pashinyan.
However, a recent series of intimidating statements from top Russian officials appears to have captured Pashinyan's attention. On October 4, Dmitry Medvedev, a member of Russia's Security Council, issued a stark warning that Russia might resort to force if its objectives are not met peacefully, stating that Armenia's shift toward the EU could lead to "nothing good" and its transformation into "a new Ukraine."
Despite Russia's military focus on Ukraine and economic strain, it retains significant leverage in Armenia, including approximately 5,000 troops stationed near Gyumri and control over the country's energy infrastructure. Medvedev's comments may have reinforced a message delivered by Rosatom chief Alexei Likhachev during a late September visit to Yerevan. Likhachev promoted Rosatom's reactors as the best option to address Armenia's projected electricity deficit, suggesting it could improve bilateral relations.
Previously, Armenia had been leaning towards replacing its aging Metsamor nuclear facility with one or more American-built small modular reactors (SMRs), following a nuclear cooperation pact signed during Vice President JD Vance's visit. However, Likhachev's proposal seemingly offered a compelling alternative. A day after his departure, Pashinyan's stance shifted, with him suggesting that SMRs might be insufficient for Armenia's growing electricity needs, especially given its ambition to become a digital hub. He indicated that a 1-megawatt plant based on Russian VVER-1000 technology could be a more suitable solution, with a final decision expected in the coming months.
Pashinyan faces a complex geopolitical challenge in balancing Russia's demands with his pursuit of EU membership and peace with Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos expressed optimism about Armenia's accession bid, noting significant progress and ongoing visa liberalization negotiations. Pashinyan also voiced continued dissatisfaction with the EAEU, citing persistent barriers to trade and transit for Armenian products.
