Key facts
- Corporate earnings have surged, beating estimates and supporting global equity markets.
- Capital spending on AI infrastructure is the primary driver of the earnings acceleration.
- Technology hardware, communications equipment, construction, and semiconductors are key industries benefiting from AI capex.
- The Information Technology sector is expected to account for 55% of projected 2026 earnings growth.
- Global earnings growth estimates are significantly above average, with S&P 500 one-year forward earnings growth estimated at 32%.
Global corporate earnings have experienced a significant surge in recent quarters, exceeding expectations and providing a strong fundamental underpinning for equity markets worldwide. This earnings boom is largely attributed to substantial capital expenditures directed towards artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.
According to Bloomberg, the largest technology firms are planning to collectively spend over $750 billion in 2026 and approach $1 trillion in 2027 on AI-related buildouts. This investment wave has directly boosted earnings in industries closely tied to AI infrastructure, including technology hardware, communications equipment, construction, and semiconductors.
The Information Technology sector, which currently constitutes 31% of the MSCI All Country World Index (MSCI ACWI) by market weight, is projected to contribute a disproportionate 55% of the total anticipated earnings growth for 2026. This growth is primarily concentrated in a limited number of stocks across the U.S., Japan, and emerging markets, indicating a highly concentrated profit expansion.
Analysts note that current consensus earnings growth estimates are well above average, particularly for the S&P 500, which is expected to see approximately 32% earnings growth over the next 12 months. Such elevated levels have historically been observed only during recovery periods following major economic downturns, like the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.