Key facts
- Malicious use of AI and nuclear conflict could lead to human extinction by 2100, according to a new global risk assessment.
- These threats top a list of 17 major risks to human health over the next 75 years.
- Other major catastrophic threats include climate crisis, childhood malnutrition, and cuts to aid spending.
- The commission modeled threats based on potential loss of healthy years (disability-adjusted life years - DALYs).
- The report emphasizes that realistic solutions exist for each identified threat.
- Decisions made by leaders today will shape the health and well-being of future generations.
Humanity faces potential extinction by 2100 due to the malicious use of artificial intelligence or nuclear conflict, according to a new global risk assessment published by The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health. These two threats are identified as the most severe among 17 major risks to human health over the next 75 years.
The commission modeled the potential loss of healthy years, measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), for each threat based on current trajectories. While the likelihood of AI-driven extinction or nuclear conflict causing extinction is considered low, their potential impact is catastrophic, with nuclear war potentially leading to "nuclear famine" by blocking sunlight and AI being used to create biological weapons.
Other "major catastrophic threats" that could cause more than 1 billion cumulative DALYs include air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, climate breakdown, conventional conflict, declining overseas aid, high alcohol use, high blood pressure, income inequality, low educational attainment, natural pandemics, obesity, poor mental health, smoking, and unhealthy aging. The report stresses that these threats are interconnected and must be addressed comprehensively.
Experts emphasized that there are "realistic courses of action" to counter each threat. For example, limiting global heating to 1.8C could prevent 1.89 billion years of healthy life being lost. The commission, comprising 35 experts, will update its assessment annually. The findings were shared at the World Health Summit in Berlin.