Key facts
- 70% of mortgage executives expect rates to be 7.5% or higher into 2027.
- Mortgage originations are projected to remain flat through 2027.
- 78% of executives plan to reduce operating costs to improve pricing.
- Loan officer compensation is seen as untouchable, with cost cuts focused below the loan officer level.
- The broker and wholesale channel has gained production volume from independent mortgage banks and traditional banks.
A significant majority of mortgage executives anticipate elevated interest rates to persist, with 70% expecting the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to remain at 7.5% or higher well into 2027, according to a live survey conducted at the HousingWire Mortgage Banking Summit on October 1, 2026. This outlook suggests a prolonged period of reduced transaction volume and limited refinancing opportunities for the industry.
The survey results indicate a strategic consensus among industry leaders: 78% plan to reduce operating costs to offer more competitive pricing. This focus on cost reduction is seen as essential for survival in a market characterized by flat origination forecasts and a shrinking pool of refinanceable mortgages. The Mortgage Bankers Association projects originations to hover around $2.1 trillion annually for 2026 and 2027, with approximately 5.5 million loans per year – a volume lower than in 2009.
Executives view loan officer compensation, which constitutes 62-65% of direct production costs, as a fixed expense. Consequently, cost-cutting efforts are expected to target other areas such as fulfillment, production support, and corporate overhead. AI is seen as a key tool for achieving these efficiencies, with projections suggesting cost per closed loan could fall from around $11,900 to $8,000. Meanwhile, loan officers are increasingly migrating from independent mortgage banks and traditional banks to broker and wholesale platforms, which have seen net positive production growth. Despite this shift, only 8% of executives identified brokers as a competitive threat, with 40% pointing to consumer-direct and digital platforms.