Key facts
- Over 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on non-public U.S. military information, according to research.
- The analysis identified 152 highly successful wallets in military and defense markets that collectively earned $8 million.
- These 'Orca' traders often placed large, long-shot bets in niche markets before cashing out.
- Copycat bets from larger traders and automated bots appear to amplify insider signals on the platform.
- The research group ACDC advocates for mandatory identity verification and banning high-risk prediction markets.
More than 150 wallets on the prediction market platform Polymarket may have traded on non-public U.S. military information, according to research by the nonprofit Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC). The analysis, which examined settled markets through May 5, identified 556 wallets dubbed 'Orcas' for their successful long-shot bets in niche markets, often before cashing out.
Of these 'Orcas,' 152 were exceptionally successful in military and defense markets, collectively earning $8 million with an average win rate of 97.2%. ACDC noted that while these traits could be explained by luck, these wallets are the most likely to be trading on military secrets. The group discovered dozens more unreported wallets beyond those previously flagged by media and researchers.
The research also highlighted concerns that these insider trades may attract copycat bets from larger traders ('Whales') and automated bots, amplifying the signals. ACDC cited examples where Orca bets on potential U.S. military actions in Iran appeared to spark similar wagers from bots and whales shortly after.
ACDC argues that Polymarket's public blockchain ledger makes such activity observable and suggests that foreign intelligence agencies could be monitoring these markets. The group advocates for mandatory identity verification for all traders and withholding payouts on suspicious trades pending investigation. They also propose banning markets where the use of non-public information is most actionable and profitable.
Polymarket, founded in 2020, states it has strict controls, monitors for suspicious activity, and has referred dozens of trader wallets to authorities, including in the case of a U.S. soldier charged with using classified information to bet on political events. The Department of Defense declined to comment on intelligence matters or third-party research findings, while the CFTC, which is seeking jurisdiction over prediction markets, also declined to comment on the specific findings but reiterated its commitment to policing misconduct in the space.