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US home prices rose 1.1% in May, lagging inflation

Created at 28 Jul · 4:21 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index increased 1.1% year-over-year in May, a faster pace than the previous month. However, with inflation at 4.2%, home prices continued to decline in real terms.

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Key Numbers

1.1%National Home Price Index annual increase in May
0.6%National Home Price Index monthly increase in May
4.2%May inflation rate
2.4%10-city composite index annual increase in May
1.6%20-city index annual increase in May
6.9%Chicago annual price gain in May
1.83%Seattle annual price decline in May
$449,900Median list price for week ending July 24, 2026
1.8%Year-over-year median list price change for week ending July 24, 2026
2.1%Month-over-month median list price change for week ending July 24, 2026

Who's Involved

S&P Cotality
Provider of the National Home Price Index
Rebecca Kaufman
Associate director of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices
Mike Miedler
President and CEO of CENTURY 21 Real Estate
US home prices rose 1.1% in May, lagging inflation

↳ Why This Matters

The data indicates that while nominal home prices are showing some recovery, they are not keeping pace with inflation, suggesting a real-term decrease in housing value. This trend, coupled with persistent inventory shortages, could influence future market dynamics and buyer behavior.

Key facts

  • The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index increased 1.1% year-over-year in May.
  • Home prices declined in real terms as inflation stood at 4.2%.
  • The 10-city composite index saw a 2.4% annual increase, and the 20-city index rose 1.6% annually.
  • Chicago led with a 6.9% annual price gain, while Seattle experienced the largest decline at 1.83%.
  • HousingWire Data shows a national median list price decrease of 1.8% year-over-year for the week ending July 24, 2026.

Despite a faster annual pace than the previous month, U.S. home prices continued to decline in real terms in May, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index. The national index rose 1.1% year-over-year to 335.1, an increase from April's 0.8% annual gain. However, this growth remained below the 4.2% inflation rate for May.

On a monthly basis, the national index saw a 0.6% increase from April. The 10-city composite index also showed accelerated appreciation, jumping 2.4% year-over-year, while the 20-city index increased 1.6% annually. Both the 10-city and 20-city indexes reported a 0.9% monthly increase.

Chicago recorded the largest annual price gain among the 20 cities at 6.9%, followed by New York at 4.2% and Cleveland at 1.9%. Conversely, Seattle experienced the largest annual price decline at 1.83%, with Denver and Tampa also showing decreases. Rebecca Kaufman of S&P Dow Jones Indices noted the persistent geographic dispersion, with Northeast and Midwest metros outperforming Western and Sunbelt regions, potentially reflecting a return-to-office trend supporting urban markets.

More current data from HousingWire indicates softer national home price appreciation for the week ending July 24, 2026. The median list price was $449,900, down 1.8% year-over-year and 2.1% from the prior month. Notable annual median list price growth was observed in Ocean City, New Jersey (+39.6%), Jackson, Michigan (+23.7%), and Champaign-Urbana, Illinois (+22.3%).

Mike Miedler, president and CEO of CENTURY 21 Real Estate, pointed to a potential market determinant: inventory has stopped increasing after four years of growth. He suggested that buyers waiting for lower rates might be underestimating a market with limited available homes.

Frequently asked questions

It is an index that tracks the average change in prices of single-family homes in the United States, providing a measure of home price appreciation.

Home prices are declining in real terms because the rate of home price appreciation (1.1% annually) is lower than the rate of inflation (4.2% annually), meaning the purchasing power of the price increase is eroded.

Chicago showed the strongest annual price gain at 6.9%, while Seattle experienced the largest annual decline at 1.83% in May.

The dispersion may reflect shifting post-pandemic housing dynamics, including a potential return-to-office mandate supporting traditional urban markets, while Western and Sunbelt regions remain under pressure.

What Happens Next

01Monitor future Case-Shiller Home Price Index reports for continued trends.
02Observe inventory levels and mortgage rate movements for market direction.
03Track regional housing market performance for further divergence.

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Cadence

How It Developed

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 1.1% year-over-year in May.
The index increased 0.6% from April on a monthly basis.
Home prices continued to decline in real terms due to inflation at 4.2%.
The 10-city composite index rose 2.4% year-over-year, and the 20-city index increased 1.6% annually.
Chicago recorded the largest annual price gain at 6.9%, while Seattle saw the largest decline at 1.83%.
HousingWire Data indicates softer home price appreciation nationally for the week ending July 24, 2026, with a median list price down 1.8% year-over-year.
Ocean City, New Jersey, Jackson, Michigan, and Champaign-Urbana, Illinois, showed significant annual median list price growth.
Inventory has stopped growing after four consecutive years of increases, according to CENTURY 21 Real Estate.

Sources

T1
Case-Shiller home prices rise 1.1% in May, still lag inflationHousingWire

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