City AM Shadow MPC advises Bank of England to hold rates
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IN SHORT
The Bank of England's Shadow Monetary Policy Committee has advised holding interest rates at 3.75%, citing decreased inflation threats and concerns over wage-price spirals. This recommendation comes as UK public inflation expectations for the next year fell to 3.4% and five-year expectations dropped to 3.7% in July. Despite these declines, the NIESR think tank forecasts that inflation will persist above the Bank of England's target until 2029, suggesting ongoing economic challenges.
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Key Numbers
3.75%recommended interest rate hold
3.4%UK year-ahead inflation expectations in July
3.7%UK five-year inflation expectations in July
2029year inflation forecast to remain above target
Who's Involved
Bank of England
central bank setting interest rates and inflation targets
Shadow Monetary Policy Committee
advisory body recommending interest rate policy
NIESR
think tank forecasting persistent price pressures
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Key facts
The Bank of England's Shadow MPC recommended holding interest rates at 3.75%.
The committee cited easing inflation threats as a reason for the hold.
Concerns about wage-price spirals were also mentioned by the committee.
One member of the Shadow MPC advocated for a rate hike.
UK public inflation expectations for the next year fell to 3.4% in July.
UK public inflation expectations for five years ahead fell to 3.7% in July.
The NIESR forecasts inflation will remain above the Bank of England's target until 2029.
The Bank of England's Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has recommended maintaining the current interest rate at 3.75%. This decision is based on a perceived easing of inflation threats and apprehension regarding potential wage-price spirals. The majority of the committee members voted to hold rates steady. However, one member proposed an increase in interest rates to bolster the Bank of England's commitment to combating inflation.
In parallel, recent data indicates a decline in public inflation expectations within the UK. In July, expectations for the next year dropped to 3.4%, and expectations for the five-year outlook decreased to 3.7%. Despite this positive trend in public sentiment, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) offers a more cautious outlook. The NIESR think tank forecasts that inflation will continue to exceed the Bank of England's target rate until the year 2029, indicating persistent price pressures.
↳ Why This Matters
The Bank of England's Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has recommended maintaining the current interest rate at 3.75%. This decision is based on a perceived easing of inflation threats and apprehension regarding potential wage-price spirals. The majority of the committee members voted to hold rates steady. However, one member proposed an increase in interest rates to bolster the Bank of England's commitment to combating inflation.
Frequently asked questions
City AM's Shadow Monetary Policy Committee is a group of independent economists compiled by City AM to provide analysis and recommendations on monetary policy.
The current Bank of England interest rate is 3.75%.
A wage-price spiral is an inflationary risk where rising prices lead workers to demand higher wages, which in turn leads businesses to raise prices further, creating a self-perpetuating cycle.
Fluctuations in oil and gas prices, particularly from the Gulf region, can impact inflation. Higher energy costs can lead to broader price increases and potentially prompt workers to demand higher wages, influencing the central bank's interest rate decisions.
What Happens Next
01Bank of England to announce its interest rate decision on Thursday.
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