HomeEverythingEducation
Equities & FundsCrypto & Digital AssetsAI & TechnologyBusiness & CorporateUS Politics & PolicyGeopolitics & Global RiskMacro, Rates & FXCommodities & EnergyEuropean Politics & MarketsAsia-PacificReal Estate & Property
Story archiveAll categories
← All Stories

India GDP growth likely eased in Jan-Mar quarter on softer external demand

Created at 1 Jun · 2:42 AM3 sources↑ Market-relevant3 events
IN SHORT

India's economic growth is projected to have eased in the January-March quarter, with a Reuters poll of economists forecasting a 7.2% expansion. Weaker external demand and industrial activity are expected to be offset by strong government spending and resilient agricultural growth. The official data is due on June 5.

✉Newsletter

PiQ Daily

Pick your topics. Get only what matters, on your cadence.

Key Numbers

7.2%projected GDP growth in Jan-Mar quarter
7.8%GDP expansion in previous quarter
6.1% to 7.7%range of GDP growth estimates
7.3%estimated GVA expansion
1030 GMTtime of data release
June 5date of data release
2026year of GDP forecast
2022/23new GDP base year
2011/12old GDP base year

Who's Involved

India
country with projected eased economic growth
Reuters poll of economists
provided median forecast for India's GDP growth
45 economists
participated in the Reuters poll
Dhiraj Nim
economist at ANZ, commenting on growth drivers
Sajjid Chinoy
chief India economist at J.P. Morgan, agreeing with assessment
India GDP growth likely eased in Jan-Mar quarter on softer external demand

↳ Why This Matters

India's economic growth is closely watched as it is the world's fastest-growing major economy. However, external factors like trade disputes and geopolitical tensions can impact its trajectory. The government's capital expenditure plays a significant role in driving growth, especially when private investment is subdued. Understanding the quarterly GDP figures provides insight into the health and direction of the Indian economy.

Key facts

  • India's economic growth likely eased to 7.2% in the January-March quarter.
  • Weakening external demand and softer industrial activity are expected to offset strong government spending and resilient agricultural growth.
  • Estimates for GDP growth ranged from 6.1% to 7.7%.
  • Gross value added (GVA) was estimated to have expanded 7.3%.
  • The data is due on Friday, June 5.
  • The government updated its national accounts series in February.

India's economic growth is closely watched as it is the world's fastest-growing major economy. However, external factors like trade disputes and geopolitical tensions can impact its trajectory. The government's capital expenditure plays a significant role in driving growth, especially when private investment is subdued. Understanding the quarterly GDP figures provides insight into the health and direction of the Indian economy.

Frequently asked questions

A Reuters poll of economists forecasts India's economic growth to have eased to 7.2% in the January-March quarter.

Weakening external demand and softer industrial activity are expected to weigh on growth, while strong government spending and resilient agricultural growth are anticipated to provide support.

The data is scheduled to be released on Friday, June 5, at 1030 GMT.

Gross value added (GVA) measures economic activity excluding taxes and subsidies. It was estimated to have expanded by 7.3%.

What Happens Next

01Monitor the official release of India's Q1 GDP data on Friday, June 5.
02Observe future economic indicators for signs of recovery in external demand and industrial activity.
03Track government spending and agricultural output for their continued impact on growth.

Get the newsletter.

Pick the topics you actually care about. We'll email when there's news worth your time, on the cadence you choose. Cancel any time from your account.

Cadence
CME Headlines
  • 10-Year Treasury Note yields rose on Middle East supply risks.
    8 Jul · 8:03 PM
  • 10-Year Treasury Note yields rose on Middle East supply risks.
    8 Jul · 8:03 PM
  • Japanese Yen futures fell near multi-decade lows.
    8 Jul · 7:57 PM

How It Developed

1 Jun · 7:12 AM
Reuters poll of economists forecasts India's GDP growth eased to 7.2% in Jan-Mar quarter due to weaker external demand.
Investing.com via PiQSuite
1 Jun · 7:10 AM
India's GDP growth may have slowed to 7.2% in Q1 2026 due to weaker external demand, despite resilient agriculture and government spending.
Reuters via PiQSuite
1 Jun · 2:35 AM
India's economic growth and inflation concerns are heightened by a weak monsoon forecast, posing a significant risk to rural consumption.
Bloomberg | Markets via PiQSuite

Sources

T1
Weak Monsoon Forecast Adds to India's Inflation, Growth Worriesm.piqsuite.com
T1
India GDP growth likely eased in January-March quarter on softer external demand: Reuters pollm.piqsuite.com
T1
India GDP growth likely eased in January-March quarter on softer external demand: Reuters pollm.piqsuite.com

Related Stories

India consumer inflation likely topped RBI's 4% target in June: Reuters poll
9 Jul · 5:09 AM
IMF Downgrades Global Growth to 3% Amid Iran War, Inflation
8 Jul · 1:11 PM
Foreign investors pare India rate-hike bets, fuel record swap trading
8 Jul · 9:56 AM
IMF Warns Middle East Conflict Risks Stoking Inflation, Hurting Global Growth
8 Jul · 1:03 PM
Central banks face credibility test over premature rate cuts
9 Jul · 4:55 AM