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Wall Street rallies on AI optimism; yen surges on suspected intervention

Created at 30 Jul · 9:16 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

US stocks surged Thursday, led by Microsoft, as investors looked past rising bond yields. The yen saw a significant gain, with analysts suspecting Japanese authorities intervened to support the currency.

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Key Numbers

+2.8%Nasdaq Composite gain
+1.7%S&P 500 gain
+15.5%Microsoft share surge
+8%SOX chip index gain
-8%Meta share drop
+8%Amazon share gain after hours
-3%Apple share drop
-2.5%Dollar/yen fall
-1%Dollar index fall
+7 bps30-year Treasury yield increase
5.24%30-year Treasury yield
-2%Brent crude oil price fall
-1%WTI crude oil price fall
+1%Gold price increase
+5%Palladium price increase
40-yearYen low against dollar
six weeksduration of previous yen intervention effect
18.6%average monthly drawdown for Asia-focused funds

Who's Involved

Microsoft
shares surged 15.5%, driving AI optimism
Kevin Warsh
Fed Chairman whose comments on inflation sparked bond market skepticism
Japanese authorities
suspected of intervening to lift the yen
Leopold Aschenbrenner
leader of hedge fund Situational Awareness
Ken Griffin
whose Citadel acquired assets from Situational Awareness
Bank of Japan
policy decision on Friday could impact yen intervention effectiveness

↳ Why This Matters

The market's strong reaction to AI developments and suspected currency intervention highlights investor focus on technological growth and central bank actions. Skepticism towards the Federal Reserve's inflation strategy and the effectiveness of currency interventions could lead to continued market volatility.

Key facts

  • Wall Street stocks rallied on Thursday, with the Nasdaq up 2.8% and the S&P 500 up 1.7%, driven by AI optimism and a surge in Microsoft shares.
  • The yen experienced a significant surge against the dollar, falling 2.5%, with analysts suspecting official Japanese intervention.
  • The US 30-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since the mid-2000s, indicating market skepticism about the Federal Reserve's inflation-fighting commitment.
  • The tech sector, particularly chip stocks, saw substantial gains, while communication services lagged.
  • An AI-focused hedge fund, Situational Awareness, sold most of its portfolio to Citadel amid a challenging month for global hedge funds.

Wall Street experienced a strong rally on Thursday, fueled by renewed optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and a significant surge in Microsoft shares. Investors appeared to disregard a spike in bond yields that followed comments from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh regarding inflation.

In the foreign exchange market, the yen recorded one of its best days in years, with analysts widely suspecting official intervention from Japanese authorities to support the currency. The dollar index also declined.

The author's column highlights skepticism in the bond market regarding Warsh's commitment to reducing inflation and the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. The strategy of allowing the bond market to perform tightening actions for the Fed is described as risky, potentially leading to further market turbulence.

Key market movements included a 2.8% rise in the Nasdaq and a 1.7% gain in the S&P 500. The tech sector, particularly semiconductors, saw substantial gains, while communication services lagged. Microsoft shares jumped 15.5%, SanDisk rose 26%, and Micron Technology gained 18%. Meta shares fell 8%, while Amazon and Apple saw mixed results after hours.

The US yield curve steepened, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level since the mid-2000s. Oil prices fell in choppy trading, while gold and palladium prices increased.

Regarding communication, Warsh's remarks were criticized for a lack of clarity on how inflation would be brought down, leading to doubt and skepticism in the bond market. The intervention in the yen market followed weeks of speculation, with analysts certain of official involvement despite no confirmation from Tokyo. The effectiveness of this intervention is questioned, with the Bank of Japan's upcoming decision seen as crucial.

In terms of liquidation, the AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness, led by Leopold Aschenbrenner, sold the bulk of its stock portfolio to Ken Griffin's Citadel. This move comes as global hedge funds face their largest monthly drawdown on record due to a souring AI trade.

Frequently asked questions

The rally was sparked by renewed optimism around artificial intelligence, particularly a significant surge in Microsoft shares.

The yen surged on suspected intervention from Japanese authorities, aiming to lift it from a 40-year low against the dollar.

The author believes Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's communication strategy needs improvement, citing a lack of clarity on inflation reduction goals and a questionable commitment to the 2% inflation target.

The AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness, led by Leopold Aschenbrenner, sold the bulk of its stock portfolio to Ken Griffin's Citadel.

What Happens Next

01Bank of Japan interest rate decision
02China 'official' PMIs (July)
03Euro zone inflation (July, flash)
04Statements from dissenting Federal Reserve officials
05US earnings reports from Exxon, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive

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Cadence
CME Headlines
  • Japanese Yen futures surged on suspected intervention.
    30 Jul · 9:28 PM
  • Japanese Yen futures surged on suspected intervention.
    30 Jul · 9:28 PM
  • 10-Year T-Note futures fell as long-end yields surged.
    30 Jul · 9:28 PM

How It Developed

Wall Street rallied strongly on Thursday, with the Nasdaq up 2.8% and the S&P 500 up 1.7%.
Microsoft shares surged 15.5%, driving gains in the tech sector and the SOX chip index.
The yen notched one of its best days in years, plunging against the dollar by 2.5% on suspected intervention.
The US dollar index fell 1%.
The US yield curve bear steepened, with the 30-year yield hitting its highest level since the mid-2000s.
Oil prices fell in choppy trade, with Brent down 2% and WTI down 1%.
Gold rose 1%, and palladium gained 5%.
AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness sold the bulk of its stock portfolio to Citadel.

Sources

T1
Trading Day: Communication, intervention & liquidationReuters

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