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US producer prices flat in July, suggesting inflation may remain elevated

Created at 13 Aug · 1:01 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

U.S. producer prices were unchanged in July, missing economists' forecasts for a rebound, as goods prices declined. However, a rise in the cost of services suggests inflation could remain elevated, adding to the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged.

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Key Numbers

0.0%July PPI for final demand
0.1%Revised June PPI for final demand
0.2%Forecasted July PPI rebound
0.7%July producer goods price decline
0.2%July services cost increase
4.7%Year-on-year PPI increase through July
5.5%Year-on-year PPI increase through June
3.50%-3.75%Federal Reserve benchmark interest rate range

Who's Involved

Bureau of Labor Statistics
Released the U.S. producer price index data
Reuters
Polled economists for forecasts
Federal Reserve
Tracks PCE price indexes for inflation target
US producer prices flat in July, suggesting inflation may remain elevated

↳ Why This Matters

The unchanged producer price index suggests that while goods prices are falling, services inflation may persist, complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to bring inflation down to its target and potentially influencing future interest rate decisions.

Key facts

  • U.S. producer prices were unchanged in July, following a revised 0.1% drop in June.
  • Economists had forecast the Producer Price Index (PPI) to rebound 0.2%.
  • Producer goods prices fell 0.7%, while the cost of services increased 0.2%.
  • Year-on-year, the PPI increased 4.7% through July, down from 5.5% in June.
  • The report adds to the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates.

U.S. producer prices remained unchanged in July, a flat reading that missed economists' expectations for a 0.2% rebound and followed a revised 0.1% drop in June. The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that while producer goods prices fell 0.7%, the cost of services rose 0.2%. Much of the data is collected early in the month, suggesting that a late-July increase in oil prices may not have been fully reflected.

Annually, the PPI increased 4.7% in the 12 months through July, a deceleration from the 5.5% rise seen in June. The Federal Reserve monitors the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price indexes for its 2% inflation target. Following recent job losses and mild consumer inflation figures, the PPI report supports the view that the U.S. central bank will likely keep interest rates steady at its September 15-16 policy meeting. The Fed currently holds its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range.

Frequently asked questions

The U.S. producer price index for final demand was unchanged in July, following a revised 0.1% drop in June.

Producer goods prices fell 0.7%, while the cost of services increased 0.2%. A significant increase in oil prices towards the end of July may not have been fully captured in the data.

Through July, the PPI increased 4.7% year-on-year, down from a 5.5% increase in June.

The Federal Reserve tracks the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price indexes for its 2% inflation target.

What Happens Next

01Federal Reserve policy meeting on September 15-16.

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How It Developed

U.S. producer prices were unchanged in July.
Goods prices declined while the cost of services increased.
The PPI increased 4.7% year-on-year through July.
The report suggests inflation may remain elevated.
The data supports the case for the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged.

Sources

T1
US producer prices unchanged in JulyReuters

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