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Dollar muted ahead of jobs data; US manufacturing PMI rises

Created at 1 Jun · 2:15 PM12 sources↑ Market-relevant11 events
IN SHORT

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has seen muted volatility, trading in a narrow range as traders await clearer signals on Iran negotiations and upcoming US jobs data. Stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing PMI data for May, which rose to 54, supports a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook.

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Key Numbers

54ISM Manufacturing PMI in May
52.7ISM Manufacturing PMI in April
6.87 millionJOLTS jobs number (expected)
0.6%DXY trading range since May 15
6.0CVIX index fall

Who's Involved

ISM
Institute for Supply Management, releasing manufacturing survey
Chris Williamson
Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence
Dollar muted ahead of jobs data; US manufacturing PMI rises

↳ Why This Matters

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a key indicator of the health of the US manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 signifies expansion. Recent data, including the May PMI, suggests a potential reacceleration of US economic growth, which could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. Market participants are closely watching this data alongside geopolitical developments and labor market figures.

Key facts

  • US manufacturing activity expanded in May, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 54.
  • The Dollar Index (DXY) has experienced low volatility over the past two weeks.
  • Currency volatility (CVIX) has fallen to its lowest level in over two years.
  • Traders are awaiting clarity on Iran negotiations and upcoming US jobs data.
  • Recent strong US data supports a hawkish outlook for the Federal Reserve.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a key indicator of the health of the US manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 signifies expansion. Recent data, including the May PMI, suggests a potential reacceleration of US economic growth, which could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. Market participants are closely watching this data alongside geopolitical developments and labor market figures.

Frequently asked questions

The ISM Manufacturing PMI measures the level of activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

US manufacturing activity increased in May, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 54 from 52.7 in April.

Dollar volatility is currently low due to a lack of clarity over Iran negotiations and anticipation of upcoming US jobs data.

Recent strong US data, including the manufacturing PMI, supports the view that growth is reaccelerating, strengthening the hawkish Fed outlook.

What Happens Next

01Release of JOLTS jobs number.
02Release of headline US labor market report on Friday.

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Cadence
CME Headlines
  • 10-Year Treasury Note yields rose on Middle East supply risks.
    8 Jul · 8:03 PM
  • 10-Year Treasury Note yields rose on Middle East supply risks.
    8 Jul · 8:03 PM
  • Japanese Yen futures fell near multi-decade lows.
    8 Jul · 7:57 PM

How It Developed

2 Jun · 9:06 AM
The dollar is trading sideways ahead of key US jobs data, with currency volatility falling.
Tickmill | Expert Blog via PiQSuite
1 Jun · 8:19 PM
Article confirms US manufacturing PMI reached highest level since 2022, reiterating earlier reporting on May's robust expansion.
@investingLive_ via PiQSuite
1 Jun · 5:25 PM
Article notes modest improvement in May manufacturing, with gains in shipments and new orders, but ongoing employment weakness and price pressures.
@MTSInsights via PiQSuite
1 Jun · 2:10 PM
US manufacturing activity reached a four-year high in May, exceeding expectations and driven by businesses front-loading orders.
PiQSuite
1 Jun · 2:09 PM
The new article details the US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index for May, reporting an actual value of 56.8, up from the previous 54.1.
Economic And Earnings Data via PiQSuite
1 Jun · 2:09 PM
The US ISM Manufacturing Employment index rose to 48.6 in May from 46.4 in April.
Economic And Earnings Data via PiQSuite
1 Jun · 2:08 PM
New reports show mixed signals in US manufacturing, with S&P Global PMI rising but concerns about stock-building and inflation persist.
ZeroHedge News via PiQSuite

Sources

T1
🇺🇸 United States ISM Manufacturing Employment (May) $USD Actual: 48.6 Previous: 46.4m.piqsuite.com
T1
🇺🇸 United States ISM Manufacturing Prices (May) $USD Actual: 82.1 🔴 Forecast: 85.3 Previous: 84.6m.piqsuite.com
T1
🇺🇸 United States ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) $USD Actual: 54 🟢 Forecast: 53.3 Previous: 52.7m.piqsuite.com
T1
🇺🇸 United States ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (May) $USD Actual: 56.8 Previous: 54.1m.piqsuite.com
T1
US manufacturing activity scales four-year high in May, ISM saysm.piqsuite.com
T1
ISM manufacturing rises to the highest since 2022m.piqsuite.com
T1
"Firing On All Cylinders, But..." US Manufacturing Surveys Send Mixed Signals In Maym.piqsuite.com
T1
⚙️ US manufacturing activity improved modestly in May, with gains in shipments and new orders offset by continued weakness in employment and persistent price pressures. The MTSI Composite General PMI Index rose to 0.31 in May from a preliminary reading of 0.07, though it https://t.co/V8yUf3fYVZ@MTSInsights via PiQSuite
T1
investingLive Americas market news wrap: ISM manufacturing rises to the highest since 2022 https://t.co/G46vymMa2e@investingLive_ via PiQSuite
T1
IRELAND S&P GLOBAL MAY MANUFACTURING PMI AT 55.9 VS 54.9 IN APRIL@FirstSquawk via PiQSuite
T1
Dollar Treading Water Ahead of NFP Releasem.piqsuite.com
T1
US manufacturing activity scales four-year high in May, ISM saysm.piqsuite.com

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