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US consumer weakness may keep Fed on hold as Japan eyes rate hikes

Created at 17 Aug · 4:33 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

US retail sales fell for the first time in nine months, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's next rate decision. Meanwhile, traders are increasingly betting on faster rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, with yields on 10-year sovereign bonds nearing a 30-year high.

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Key Numbers

nine monthstime since last US retail sales fall
two-monthhigh for Aussie and kiwi dollars
2.925%yield on benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond
almost 30-yearhigh for 10-year Japanese government bond yield
159yen per dollar level flirted with

Who's Involved

Tom Westbrook
Reuters markets commentator
Walmart
retailer with earnings due
Home Depot
retailer with earnings due
Alphabet
tech giant exploring AUD bond sale
Bank of America
analysts with hawkish view on Japan rates
Donald Trump
US President ordering reduced military exercises

↳ Why This Matters

Shifting consumer spending patterns in the U.S. and potential policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan could significantly impact global currency markets and investment strategies, particularly for companies seeking international funding.

Key facts

  • US retail sales experienced their first monthly decline in nine months.
  • The dollar weakened against major currencies as market expectations shifted.
  • Traders are increasingly anticipating a quicker pace of interest rate hikes from Japan.
  • Japanese 10-year government bond yields reached their highest level in nearly 30 years.
  • Alphabet is exploring its first Australian dollar bond issuance.

The U.S. consumer may be showing signs of weakness, with retail sales declining for the first time in nine months, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates on hold. This comes as traders are increasingly betting on the Bank of Japan accelerating its pace of rate hikes, pushing yields on 10-year government bonds to near a 30-year high.

In Asian trading, the dollar broadly weakened as market sentiment shifted. The Australian and New Zealand dollars reached two-month highs, while sterling and the euro also saw gains. Alphabet is reportedly working with banks on its first Australian dollar bond sale, signaling a trend of hyperscalers seeking funding beyond the U.S. for their capital expenditures.

The yen saw a slight increase as expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes grew. Bank of America analysts anticipate four hikes between September and July of next year, bringing the policy rate to 2%. Despite a miss in Japanese economic growth data, markets reacted positively, driving up bond yields.

Looking ahead, European data is sparse on Monday, but China is set to release rescheduled monthly economic activity and housing data. Canada's inflation figures are also due, with European confidence indicators, flash PMIs, and minutes from the last Fed meeting expected later in the week.

Frequently asked questions

Recent data showed U.S. retail sales fell for the first time in nine months, suggesting potential weakness in consumer spending, which could influence the Fed's decision.

Traders are increasingly betting on the Bank of Japan picking up the pace of rate hikes, with some analysts expecting four hikes between September and July next year.

The dollar has slipped broadly, while the Aussie and kiwi dollars have reached two-month highs. Sterling and the euro are also near multi-month highs.

Alphabet is reportedly working with banks on its first Australian dollar bond sale to fund its massive capital expenditures on computing.

What Happens Next

01Walmart and Home Depot earnings reports are expected.
02China to release rescheduled monthly economic activity and housing data.
03Canada CPI figures are due.
04European confidence indicators and flash PMIs to be released later in the week.
05Minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting to be published.

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Cadence
CME Headlines
  • Yield curve shifts and Fed minutes set the stage for.
    14 Aug · 8:47 PM
  • Yield curve shifts and Fed minutes set the stage for.
    14 Aug · 8:47 PM
  • Yield curve shifts and Fed minutes set the stage for.
    14 Aug · 8:47 PM

How It Developed

US retail sales fell for the first time in nine months.
The dollar broadly slipped as traders adjusted outlooks.
Aussie and kiwi dollars reached two-month highs.
Sterling and the euro neared multi-month highs.
Alphabet is reportedly working on an inaugural Australian dollar bond sale.
The yen rose as traders anticipate faster rate hikes from Japan.
Japanese government bond yields rose, with the 10-year yield near a 30-year high.
China rescheduled monthly economic activity and housing data for release.

Sources

T1
Morning Bid: Could consumers keep the Fed on hold, while Japan hikes?Reuters

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