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US 30-year mortgage rate rises to 6.52%, driven by oil prices and inflation

Created at 11 Jun · 4:40 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

The average U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.52% from 6.48% last week, nearing its yearly high. Elevated borrowing costs are influenced by rising oil prices due to the Iran conflict, which is driving inflation and pushing up Treasury yields.

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Key Numbers

6.52%average 30-year fixed mortgage rate
6.48%previous week's average mortgage rate
6.84%average rate a year ago
4.53%10-year Treasury yield
4.47%previous week's 10-year Treasury yield
3.97%10-year Treasury yield in late February
4-millionannual pace of existing U.S. home sales
5.2-millionhistoric norm for annual home sales

Who's Involved

Freddie Mac
mortgage buyer that reported the rate increase
Federal Reserve
influences mortgage rates through interest rate policy

↳ Why This Matters

Elevated mortgage rates reduce borrower purchasing power, potentially impacting housing demand and sales volumes. The trend also reflects broader economic pressures from inflation and geopolitical events affecting commodity prices.

Key facts

  • The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the U.S. rose to 6.52% this week.
  • This rate is just below the year's high and up from 6.48% last week.
  • The increase is linked to rising oil prices and inflation stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for mortgage pricing, increased to 4.53%.

The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate has climbed to 6.52%, nearing its highest point of the year, according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac. This marks an increase from 6.48% the previous week and reflects elevated borrowing costs for homebuyers.

Mortgage rates are influenced by factors including Federal Reserve policy, bond market sentiment, and inflation expectations. They generally track the 10-year Treasury yield, which has risen to 4.53% from 4.47% a week ago and was at 3.97% before the conflict between the U.S. and Iran began in late February.

The ongoing conflict has disrupted crude oil flows, leading to higher oil prices and contributing to increased inflation. This environment has kept mortgage rates trending upward since February, with the 30-year fixed rate not falling below 6% since late 2022.

While current rates are lower than a year ago, the upward trajectory and uncertainty have deterred many potential buyers, contributing to a housing slump that began in 2022. Sales of existing U.S. homes remain below historical norms, hovering near a 4-million annual pace, despite a recent acceleration in May.

Frequently asked questions

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently 6.52%.

Mortgage rates are influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, bond market expectations for the economy and inflation, and the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield.

The conflict has disrupted oil flows, leading to higher oil prices and inflation, which in turn has pushed Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher.

Sales of existing U.S. homes remain below historical norms, hovering near a 4-million annual pace, despite a recent acceleration in May.

What Happens Next

01Mortgage rates will continue to be influenced by Federal Reserve policy and bond market expectations.
02Future home sales data will indicate the impact of sustained higher mortgage rates on the housing market.

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Cadence
CME Headlines
  • 10-Year Treasury Note yields rose on Middle East supply risks.
    8 Jul · 8:03 PM
  • 10-Year Treasury Note yields rose on Middle East supply risks.
    8 Jul · 8:03 PM
  • Japanese Yen futures fell near multi-decade lows.
    8 Jul · 7:57 PM

How It Developed

The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate increased to 6.52% from 6.48% last week.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.53% from 4.47% a week ago.
Mortgage rates have trended higher since the U.S.-Iran conflict began in late February.
Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes declined in the first three months of the year.
Sales accelerated in May to their fastest pace since December.
Sales of existing U.S. homes are hovering close to a 4-million annual pace.

Sources

T1
Average US long-term mortgage rate rises to 6.52%, just below its high for the yearAP News

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