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UK economy grew 0.1% in May, defying contraction fears

Created at 16 Jul · 6:08 AM3 sources↑ Market-relevant3 events
IN SHORT

The UK economy expanded by 0.1% in May, driven by a strong performance in the services sector that offset declines in manufacturing and production. This growth narrowly avoided a contraction, despite the impact of the Iran conflict on energy costs.

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Key Numbers

0.1%UK economy growth in May
0.3%Services sector growth in May
0.8%Manufacturing contraction in May
0.5%Production contraction in May
1.8%Science and tech activity increase
5.1%Research and development expansion
0.06%Contribution to GDP growth from science and tech
0.1%UK economy contraction in April
$120Peak oil prices per barrel
0.9%OECD forecast for UK economic growth this year
105.4%Projected government debt as percentage of GDP by 2027
4%Potential GDP boost from reforms within a decade

Who's Involved

Liz McKeown
Director of economic statistics at the ONS
Rachel Reeves
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer
Andy Burnham
Incoming Prime Minister
Ed Miliband
Energy secretary and former Labour leader
Shabana Mahmood
Home secretary tipped as potential new Chancellor
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Provider of UK economic data
OECD
Organisation forecasting UK economic growth and debt
UK economy grew 0.1% in May, defying contraction fears

↳ Why This Matters

The marginal growth in the UK economy indicates resilience amidst global economic pressures, but persistent challenges in manufacturing and production, coupled with high government debt projections, signal ongoing economic headwinds.

Key facts

  • The UK economy grew by 0.1% in May.
  • Services sector output increased by 0.3%, while manufacturing contracted by 0.8% and production by 0.5%.
  • Science and technology activity rose by 1.8%, driven by research and development.
  • The economy had previously contracted by 0.1% in April.
  • The Iran conflict at the end of February contributed to rising oil prices.

The UK economy experienced marginal growth of 0.1% in May, narrowly avoiding a contraction and meeting market expectations. This expansion was primarily fueled by a 0.3% increase in the services sector, which compensated for downturns in manufacturing and production. The services sector's strength was attributed to computer programming, advertising, and a robust performance in the pharmaceutical industry. Science and technology also saw significant growth, particularly in research and development.

This follows a 0.1% contraction in April, and comes after a stronger first quarter. The global economy, including the UK, has been impacted by the conflict in Iran, which began at the end of February and led to a surge in oil prices to $120 per barrel. Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledged the conflict's domestic economic consequences.

These figures emerge as Chancellor Reeves is expected to be replaced following a potential reshuffle. She recently defended her record on growth and public finances in a speech, warning her successor about the importance of credibility. Potential successors include Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. The incoming Chancellor will face pressure on public finances, with the OECD forecasting 0.9% growth for the year and projecting government debt to exceed 105.4% of GDP by 2027. The OECD also recommended reforms, including tax consolidation, to boost GDP by up to 4% within a decade.

Frequently asked questions

The UK economy grew by 0.1% in May, according to the Office for National Statistics.

The services sector drove the growth, increasing by 0.3%, while manufacturing and production contracted.

The conflict contributed to rising oil prices, impacting global economies and potentially influencing energy costs domestically.

The OECD forecasts 0.9% growth for the year and projects government debt to breach 105.4% of GDP by 2027 without policy changes.

What Happens Next

01A new Chancellor will inherit pressure on public finances.
02The OECD's recommended reforms may be implemented to boost GDP.
03Further economic data will be released to track growth trends.

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Cadence
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How It Developed

The UK economy grew by 0.1% in May, matching economists' forecasts.
The UK economy grew 0.1% in May, contrary to earlier reports of contraction, with the Iran war impacting energy costs.
The UK economy grew marginally in May, with services sector performance softening the impact of the Iran war.
Office for National Statistics figures revealed the economy grew 0.1% in May, broadly in line with market expectations.
The services sector grew 0.3%, while manufacturing contracted 0.8% and production fell 0.5%.
The ONS stated that slight GDP growth in May was driven by services alone, with production and construction falling back.
Science and tech activity increased by 1.8%, with research and development up 5.1%, contributing 0.06 percentage points to GDP growth.
The economy had previously recorded a 0.1% slip in April.

Sources

T1
UK economy grew by 0.1% in MayReuters
T1
UK economy grew by 0.1% in May despite impact of Iran warThe Guardian
T1
UK economy grows despite Iran war hitCity AM
T2
GDP monthly estimate, UK: May 2025 - Office for National Statisticsons.gov.uk
T2
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - Office for National Statisticsons.gov.uk

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