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UK business morale hits four-month high in July

Created at 30 Jul · 11:08 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

British businesses showed increased confidence in the economic outlook in July, reaching a four-month high. This rise is attributed to a more stable global backdrop, including lower energy prices and reduced uncertainty, according to a Lloyds survey.

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Key Numbers

+49overall business confidence in July
+4712-month average for overall confidence
+42confidence about the wider economy in July
+25%domestic firms' confidence increase
+56optimism about trading outlook
+47manufacturing confidence in July
+4512-month average for manufacturing confidence
1,200businesses polled in the survey
£1 millionturnover threshold for smaller businesses
$1.34 millionturnover threshold for smaller businesses in USD
£250,000minimum annual sales for surveyed businesses
0.7473pounds per US dollar exchange rate

Who's Involved

Lloyds
conducted the business confidence survey
Hann-Ju Ho
Senior Economist at Lloyds Commercial Banking
Ipsos
conducted the online polling for the survey

↳ Why This Matters

The rise in UK business confidence suggests a potential improvement in economic sentiment, which could translate into increased investment and hiring, although continued cost pressures remain a concern.

Key facts

  • UK business confidence reached a four-month high in July.
  • Overall confidence rose 5 points to +49.
  • Confidence in the wider economy jumped 11 points to +42.
  • Manufacturing sector confidence increased by 14 points to +47.
  • The survey polled 1,200 businesses between July 1 and July 16.

British businesses reported a significant increase in economic confidence during July, reaching a four-month high. The Lloyds business barometer survey indicated a rise of 5 points to +49, surpassing its 12-month average of +47. This uplift is attributed to a more stable global environment, characterized by lower energy prices and reduced uncertainty, according to Hann-Ju Ho, senior economist at Lloyds commercial banking.

The net balance for confidence in the wider economy saw a substantial leap of 11 points to +42. Domestic firms specifically reported an 11-point increase in confidence to 25%, partly driven by stronger demand. Optimism regarding companies' trading outlook remained steady at +56. Smaller businesses with annual sales below £1 million also experienced a notable improvement in sentiment.

Confidence within the manufacturing sector showed a marked increase, rising 14 points to +47, exceeding its 12-month average of +45. The data was compiled from online polling of 1,200 businesses with annual sales of at least £250,000, conducted by Ipsos between July 1 and July 16.

Frequently asked questions

The Lloyds business barometer is a survey that measures the confidence of British businesses regarding the economic outlook and their own trading prospects.

The rise in confidence is attributed to a more stable global backdrop, including lower energy prices and reduced uncertainty, as well as stronger domestic demand.

Domestic firms and manufacturing companies reported significant increases in confidence.

The survey was conducted from July 1 to July 16.

What Happens Next

01Monitor future surveys for sustained improvement in business sentiment.
02Observe the impact of global conditions on UK firms' outlook.

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How It Developed

Overall business confidence rose 5 points to +49 in July.
Confidence regarding the wider economy increased by 11 points to +42.
Domestic firms reported a 22-point increase in confidence to 25%.
Optimism about trading outlook remained unchanged at +56.
Smaller businesses reported a strong increase in sentiment.
Confidence among manufacturing companies rose 14 points to +47.

Sources

T1
UK business morale hits four-month high in July, Lloyds survey showsReuters

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