Key facts
- El Niño has officially arrived, according to US officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
- Scientists predict this El Niño could be one of the strongest on record, potentially ranking among the largest since 1950.
- The phenomenon is expected to peak in the fall or winter and could lead to record global temperatures.
- El Niño alters weather patterns, causing severe storms in some regions and drought in others, with specific impacts varying globally.
- Historically, El Niño has been linked to drought in Australia, Africa, India, and parts of South America, and heavy precipitation in the southern US.
US officials have officially declared the arrival of El Niño, with scientists warning it could be one of the strongest on record and potentially the most powerful of the century. This phenomenon, characterized by warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, is expected to peak in the fall or winter and could significantly impact global weather patterns.
El Niño is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso) cycle, which influences global weather every three to seven years. When sea surface temperatures rise at least 0.5C above average, it can cause massive atmospheric disruptions, altering jet streams and precipitation patterns. This can lead to severe storms and flooding in some regions, while others experience drought and heat.
Scientists are particularly concerned about the potential intensity of this El Niño, with some predicting it could be the strongest in 140 years. A 'super' El Niño, defined by sea surface temperatures spiking at least 2C above normal, has occurred only a few times since 1950. The 2023-24 El Niño was already among the five strongest on record and contributed to record global temperatures in 2024.
Expected impacts include drought and heat across Australia, southern and central Africa, India, and parts of South America, while the southern US, Middle East, and south-central Asia may see heavy precipitation. While increased rainfall could benefit drought-stricken areas in the US, experts caution that dry basins may not fully recover, and exceptionally wet conditions could lead to flooding and destruction.