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Italy services costs hit 40-month high amid Middle East conflict

Created at 2 Jun · 8:43 AM5 sources↑ Market-relevant5 events
IN SHORT

Italy's service sector experienced input cost inflation at a 40-month high in May, reaching 66.7. The services PMI fell to 49.4, indicating a third consecutive month of contraction. Economists suggest the Middle East conflict could further increase costs, though employment and future outlook indicators show slight improvement.

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Key Numbers

40-monthhighest input cost inflation reading
66.7services input cost inflation index
49.4services PMI
50.0growth threshold
50.6employment subindex
59.5future activity gauge
four-yearmanufacturing input cost inflation high
50.4composite PMI
0.6%government economic growth outlook for this year
0.6%government economic growth outlook for next year

Who's Involved

S&P Global
provider of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey
Eleanor Dennison
S&P Global economist commenting on cost pressures and outlook
Giorgia Meloni
Prime Minister of Italy, whose government cut economic growth forecasts
Italy services costs hit 40-month high amid Middle East conflict

↳ Why This Matters

Rising costs and contracting services activity in Italy could signal broader economic weakness in the Eurozone's third-largest economy, potentially impacting inflation trends and the European Central Bank's policy decisions.

Key facts

  • Input cost inflation in Italy's service sector reached a 40-month high of 66.7 in May.
  • The headline services PMI fell to 49.4 in May, marking the third consecutive month of contraction.
  • The employment subindex rose to 50.6, and the future activity gauge increased to 59.5.
  • Manufacturing input cost inflation also hit a four-year high.
  • Italy's government cut its economic growth outlook to 0.6% for this year and next.

Cost pressures in Italy's service sector reached a 40-month high in May, with input cost inflation accelerating to 66.7 from 65.5 in April, according to S&P Global's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The headline services PMI fell to 49.4, indicating contraction for the third consecutive month, below the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction. This reading was slightly worse than the Reuters survey's forecast of 49.1. S&P Global economist Eleanor Dennison noted that services cost pressures could increase if the Middle East conflict persists. However, glimmers of hope were seen in the employment subindex, which rose to 50.6 from 50.3, and the future activity gauge, which increased to 59.5 from 59.1. The sister survey for Italy's manufacturing sector showed input cost inflation at a four-year high. The composite PMI, combining manufacturing and services, was stable at 50.4. Italy's government recently cut its economic growth outlook for this year and next to 0.6% and forecasts sub-1% growth for six consecutive years.

Frequently asked questions

The main driver was the increasing impact of the conflict in the Middle East, pushing input cost inflation to a 40-month high.

No, the services sector contracted for the third consecutive month in May, with the PMI falling to 49.4, below the 50.0 threshold for growth.

Yes, the employment subindex rose to 50.6 and the gauge of future activity increased to 59.5, suggesting potential future improvement.

What Happens Next

01Continued monitoring of Middle East conflict impact on energy and supply chains.
02Observation of future Italian economic data releases for signs of recovery or further contraction.

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Cadence
CME Headlines
  • 10-Year Treasury Note yields rose on Middle East supply risks.
    8 Jul · 8:03 PM
  • 10-Year Treasury Note yields rose on Middle East supply risks.
    8 Jul · 8:03 PM
  • Japanese Yen futures fell near multi-decade lows.
    8 Jul · 7:57 PM

How It Developed

3 Jun · 7:50 AM
Italy's services sector saw input cost inflation hit a 40-month high in May, while business activity continued to contract.
Reuters via PiQSuite
3 Jun · 7:50 AM
Italy's services costs hit a 40-month high in May due to Middle East conflict, despite PMI showing contraction.
PiQSuite
3 Jun · 1:44 AM
Article states gold prices dipped due to Middle East tensions and strong US jobs data.
Investing.com via PiQSuite
2 Jun · 8:43 AM
Article confirms May acceleration in Spanish job creation, unaffected by Middle East conflict.
@PiQSuite via PiQSuite
2 Jun · 8:41 AM
The Spanish labor market shows no impact from the Middle East conflict, continuing its trend and even accelerating in May.
@atalaveraEcon via PiQSuite

Sources

T1
Sin señales de impacto del conflicto en Oriente Medio en el mercado laboral, que sigue a lo suyo, incluso acelerando algo en mayo. Será otro buen trimestre para el empleo, incluso si la actividad afloja algo. https://t.co/gJ6DYvZm9o@atalaveraEcon via PiQSuite
T1
Spanish labor market shows no impact from Middle East conflict, accelerates in May The Spanish labor market shows no signs of impact from the Middle East conflict, continuing its trend and even accelerating in May. The second quarter is expected to be positive for employment,@PiQSuite via PiQSuite
T1
Gold dips as traders weigh fresh Middle East tensions, strong US jobs datam.piqsuite.com
T1
Italy services costs at 3-year high as business contracts, PMI showsm.piqsuite.com
T1
Italy services costs at 3-year high as business contracts, PMI showsm.piqsuite.com

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