Key facts
- Russia's 2026 budget deficit and spending may exceed official plans by over 1 trillion roubles ($12.85 billion).
- Projected 2026 federal spending is 45.11 trillion roubles, with revenue unchanged at 40.28 trillion roubles.
- The projected 2026 deficit is 4.83 trillion roubles, compared to the budget's assumed 3.79 trillion roubles.
- Russia's deficit in the first half of the year was 5.73 trillion roubles (2.5% of GDP), a 1.7-fold increase year-on-year.
- The target for a zero primary budget deficit has been postponed to 2029.
- The 2025 budget deficit reached 5.7 trillion roubles (2.6% of GDP).
Russia's federal budget deficit and spending could exceed official plans by more than 1 trillion roubles ($12.85 billion) in 2026, according to data from the government's budget portal. The projection indicates federal spending will reach 45.11 trillion roubles in 2026, up from 44.07 trillion roubles in the budget law, while projected revenue remains unchanged at 40.28 trillion roubles. This would result in a deficit of 4.83 trillion roubles, compared to the 3.79 trillion roubles (1.6% of GDP) currently assumed by the budget.
The Bank of Russia has identified a wider budget deficit as a significant inflationary risk as it considers its next interest rate decision. Russia's budget deficit in the first half of 2024 stood at 5.73 trillion roubles, or 2.5% of GDP, a 1.7-fold increase from the same period a year earlier.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has stated that the deficit would increase "somewhat" but pledged it would not significantly raise domestic borrowing. The government has postponed achieving a zero primary budget deficit, a requirement under Russia's fiscal rule, until 2029. In 2025, Russia's budget deficit already exceeded its official target, reaching 5.7 trillion roubles, or 2.6% of GDP, the highest level since 2020.