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NOAA forecasts drought persistence in West, Mid-Atlantic

Created at 1 Jun · 6:01 PM4 sources↑ Market-relevant4 events
IN SHORT

NOAA's June drought outlook forecasts persistent drought in the West and Mid-Atlantic, with new drought expected in the Midwest. El Niño is linked to above-normal wind shear in the Atlantic MDR through early July. Some areas in the South and Southwest may see drought improve.

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Who's Involved

NOAA
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, issuing June drought outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center
involved in drought outlook
NOAA forecasts drought persistence in West, Mid-Atlantic

↳ Why This Matters

Persistent drought conditions can significantly impact agriculture, water resources, and energy production in affected regions.

Key facts

  • NOAA forecasts persistent drought in the West and Mid-Atlantic for June.
  • New drought is expected to develop in the Midwest.
  • Drought conditions may improve or end in parts of the South and Southwest.
  • El Niño is linked to persistent above-normal wind shear in the Atlantic MDR through early July.

NOAA's June drought outlook indicates persistent drought conditions in the Western and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States, with new drought expected to emerge in the Midwest. Concurrently, El Niño is contributing to sustained above-normal wind shear across the Atlantic's Main Development Region (MDR), including the Caribbean, throughout June and into early July. While periods of less hostile conditions are anticipated, the overall outlook suggests ongoing challenges for these areas, which can significantly impact agriculture, water resources, and energy production.

Frequently asked questions

The West and Mid-Atlantic regions are expected to experience persistent drought conditions according to NOAA's June outlook.

New drought conditions are expected to develop in the Midwest region.

Yes, parts of the South and Southwest may see drought conditions improve or end.

The long-range GEFS indicates that El Niño is the cause of persistent above-normal shear across the Atlantic MDR, including the Caribbean, through June and into early July.

What Happens Next

01Further analysis of drought conditions based on the June outlook.
02Monitoring of Atlantic MDR shear patterns and El Niño's influence.

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Cadence
CME Headlines
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  • 10-Year Treasury Note yields rose on Middle East supply risks.
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    8 Jul · 7:57 PM

How It Developed

2 Jun · 4:06 PM
New article warns against using NOAA's AI-GFS/AI-GEFS models for critical applications due to accuracy issues.
@RyanWeather via PiQSuite
2 Jun · 2:47 PM
The GEFS model suggests persistent above-normal wind shear in the Atlantic MDR and Caribbean through early July, linked to El Niño.
@AndyHazelton via PiQSuite
1 Jun · 9:08 PM
June drought outlook indicates persistence in West/Mid-Atlantic, new development in Midwest, and potential relief in South/Southwest.
@NOAADrought via PiQSuite
1 Jun · 5:58 PM
NOAA's new Seasonal Forecasting System (SFS) is in real-time beta, with May's Nino 3.4 SST anomalies at ~2.0°C, potentially peaking in Dec 2026.
@RyanWeather via PiQSuite

Sources

T1
NOAA's new Seasonal Forecasting System (SFS) is running in real-time beta (waiting on June's output) May's relative-Nino 3.4 SST anomalies are ~2.0°C peaking in December 2026. CFSv2 is likely overcooking the tropical Pacific. https://t.co/TcVOBpVUf7 https://t.co/47WNLVskTS@RyanWeather via PiQSuite
T1
June #drought outlook from @NOAA @NWS @NWSCPC Drought is expected to persist across much of the West & Mid-Atlantic, and develop in the Midwest. Parts of the South & Southwest may see some relief as drought conditions improve or end. For more: https://t.co/s8Wz6Q9cl6 https://t.co/vlZYewYccO@NOAADrought via PiQSuite
T1
The long-range GEFS (out to 35 days) shows pretty relentless above-normal shear across the Atlantic MDR (including the Caribbean) throughout June into the beginning of July. This is #ElNiño in action. Notice there are periods where it's "less hostile", probably associated with https://t.co/xDFtfSf1Lw@AndyHazelton via PiQSuite
T1
Don't use NOAA's AI global models (AI-GFS/AI-GEFS)for anything important until they're upgraded to Version 2. They lose track of > 1°F of global temperature over 15-days. https://t.co/qzPXSM40aB@RyanWeather via PiQSuite

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