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Mexico's inflation slows more than expected in June

Created at 9 Jul · 12:29 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Mexico's annual inflation rate decelerated for the third consecutive month in June, falling to 3.37%, below economists' forecasts and settling within the central bank's target range. The core inflation rate, however, remained slightly above the target.

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Key Numbers

3.37%annual inflation rate in June
3.94%annual inflation rate in May
3.52%economists' June inflation forecast
4.03%annual core inflation rate in June
3%central bank target range lower bound
4%central bank target range upper bound
-0.27%monthly consumer price change in June
0.24%monthly core index change in June
3.55%annual inflation rate in early June
4.11%annual inflation rate in early May
3.77%economists' early June inflation forecast
4.12%core inflation rate in early June
-0.11%monthly consumer price change in early June
0.19%core price index change in early June

Who's Involved

Mexico
country with slowing inflation rate
Reuters
news agency reporting on economic data
Mexico's central bank
sets inflation target range
Capital Economics
analyst firm commenting on inflation impact
Kimberley Sperrfechter
analyst at Capital Economics
Mexico's inflation slows more than expected in June

↳ Why This Matters

The continued deceleration of inflation in Mexico, falling within the central bank's target range, reduces the immediate pressure for interest rate hikes, potentially signaling a stable monetary policy environment. However, persistent core inflation above the target may still warrant caution.

Key facts

  • Mexico's annual inflation rate slowed to 3.37% in June, down from 3.94% in May.
  • The June inflation rate was lower than the 3.52% forecast by economists.
  • The core inflation rate was 4.03% in June, slightly above the central bank's target range.
  • Consumer prices fell 0.27% in June compared to the previous month.
  • The core index rose 0.24% in June.

Mexico's annual inflation rate eased to 3.37% in June, marking the third consecutive month of deceleration and falling below economists' expectations of 3.52%. This slowdown brings inflation within the central bank's target range of 3% plus or minus one percentage point. In the same month, consumer prices decreased by 0.27% month-on-month.

However, the closely watched core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, stood at 4.03%, remaining slightly above the central bank's desired range. The core index saw a monthly increase of 0.24% in June.

Earlier data for the first half of June indicated an annual inflation rate of 3.55%, also below forecasts, and a monthly consumer price fall of 0.11%. The core inflation rate for the first half of June was 4.12%, with a monthly increase of 0.19%. Analysts suggest that the lower-than-expected inflation figures will reduce pressure on the Bank of Mexico to raise interest rates.

Frequently asked questions

Mexico's annual inflation rate was 3.37% in June.

The June inflation rate of 3.37% was lower than the 3.52% forecast by economists polled by Reuters.

Mexico's core inflation rate stood at 4.03% in June, which is slightly above the central bank's target range.

Mexico's central bank targets an inflation range of 3%, plus or minus one percentage point.

What Happens Next

01Markets expect Banxico to keep its benchmark interest rate at 6.50% on Thursday.
02The central bank is expected to wait until near the end of the year to embark on a modest tightening cycle.

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How It Developed

Mexico's annual inflation rate was 3.37% in June.
This marks the third consecutive month of slowing inflation.
The June inflation rate was lower than the 3.94% recorded in May.
Economists had forecast a 3.52% inflation rate for June.
The core inflation rate stood at 4.03% in June.
Consumer prices fell 0.27% in June.
The core index rose 0.24% during June.
Mexico's annual inflation rate hit 3.55% in the first half of June.

Sources

T1
Mexico's inflation slows more than expected in JuneReuters
T2
Mexico Annual Inflation Eased More Than Expected in Early Junebloomberg.com
T2
Mexican inflation slows more than expected in early June, pushes ...aol.com

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