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Mexico inflation undershoots forecasts; core rate returns to target range

Created at 23 Jul · 12:29 PM3 sources↑ Market-relevant2 events
IN SHORT

Mexico's annual inflation slowed to 3.10% in early July, below economists' forecasts. Core inflation also eased to 3.95%, returning to the Bank of Mexico's target range of 2-4%.

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Key Numbers

3.10%Mexico's annual inflation rate in early July
3.12%Economists' forecast for Mexico's annual inflation
3.95%Mexico's annual core inflation rate through early July
4.12%Mexico's annual core inflation rate in the first half of June
2-4%Bank of Mexico's target inflation range
0.3%Mexico's monthly economic contraction in May
3.7%Decline in construction sector in May
1.1%Mexico's annual economic growth in May
1%Forecasted annual economic growth in May

Who's Involved

INEGI
Mexico's national statistics agency
Bank of Mexico
Central bank whose target range core inflation has returned to
Mexico inflation undershoots forecasts; core rate returns to target range

↳ Why This Matters

The cooling inflation provides the Bank of Mexico room to potentially maintain or consider interest rate cuts, while the economic contraction in May signals potential headwinds for growth in Latin America's second-largest economy.

Key facts

  • Mexico's annual inflation rate slowed to 3.10% in early July, below the 3.12% forecast.
  • Core inflation fell to 3.95% in the 12 months through early July, returning to the Bank of Mexico's 2-4% target range.
  • Mexico's economy contracted 0.3% in May compared to the same month a year earlier.
  • The secondary sector, particularly construction, declined 3.7% in May.
  • The primary sector also posted a decline in May.

Mexico's annual inflation rate slowed more than anticipated in early July, reaching 3.10% and marking the eighth consecutive period of deceleration. This figure undershot the 3.12% median estimate from economists surveyed by Reuters. The closely watched core price index, which excludes volatile food and energy items, also eased, rising 3.95% in the 12 months through early July, down from 4.12% in the prior period. This brings core inflation back within the Bank of Mexico's target range of 2% to 4%.

However, official data showed that Mexico's economy contracted 0.3% in May from April, driven by declines in the secondary sector, particularly construction, which fell 3.7%, and the primary sector. This contraction follows a revised 1.4% expansion in April, which was the largest monthly increase in over five years. On an annual basis, the economy grew 1.1% in May, below the forecast of 1%.

Frequently asked questions

Mexico's annual inflation rate was 3.10% in early July.

No, the inflation rate of 3.10% was slightly lower than the 3.12% forecast by economists.

Mexico's core inflation rate was 3.95% in the 12 months through early July.

The Bank of Mexico's target inflation range is 3%, plus or minus one percentage point, meaning 2% to 4%.

Mexico's economy contracted 0.3% in May from April, with declines in the secondary and primary sectors, including a 3.7% drop in construction.

What Happens Next

01Bank of Mexico to consider inflation data in upcoming interest-rate-setting meetings.

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How It Developed

Mexico's annual inflation rate decelerated to 3.10% in early July.
Core inflation fell to 3.95% in the 12 months through early July.
Mexico's economy contracted 0.3% in May from a year earlier.
Construction sector declined 3.7% in May.
On an annual basis, the economy grew 1.1% in May.
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Sources

T1
Mexico’s Inflation Slows Again After Banxico Holds RatesBloomberg
T1
Mexico inflation undershoots forecasts; core rate returns to target rangeReuters
T2
Mexico Inflation Undershoots Forecasts, Giving Banxico ...bloomberg.com

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