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Jobless claims rise to 4-month high, but layoffs remain low

Created at 11 Jun · 2:55 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased to a four-month high in the week ended May 30, reaching 225,000. However, this rise is attributed to the timing of the Memorial Day holiday rather than an increase in actual layoffs, which remain historically low.

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Key Numbers

225,000initial jobless claims for week ended May 30
13,000increase in initial jobless claims
187,978raw number of new jobless claims
190,000threshold for unadjusted claims
0.9%all-time low layoff rate
1.1%layoff rate in April
1.78 millioncontinuing claims for unemployment benefits
2 millionpost-pandemic peak for continuing claims

Who's Involved

U.S. Department of Labor
released seasonally adjusted government data on jobless claims
Chip West
retail strategist at RR Donnelley, commented on consumer spending
Jobless claims rise to 4-month high, but layoffs remain low

↳ Why This Matters

The data indicates that despite a temporary rise in jobless claims due to holiday distortions, the labor market remains robust with historically low layoff rates, supporting consumer spending and economic stability.

Key facts

  • Initial jobless claims rose to 225,000 in the week ended May 30, a four-month high.
  • The increase is attributed to the Memorial Day holiday's impact on seasonal adjustments.
  • Actual, unadjusted jobless claims fell slightly, remaining historically low.
  • The overall layoff rate has decreased, indicating businesses are not significantly cutting jobs.
  • Continuing unemployment claims declined to 1.78 million.

Initial jobless claims in the United States surged to a four-month high of 225,000 in the week ending May 30, according to seasonally adjusted government data. This increase, the largest since early February, was significantly influenced by the timing of the Memorial Day holiday, which can skew seasonal adjustments and affect when laid-off workers apply for benefits.

Despite the headline jump, the underlying data suggests layoffs are not increasing. The raw, unadjusted number of initial jobless claims actually fell slightly to 187,978 and has remained below 190,000 for three consecutive weeks, a level considered remarkably low. Furthermore, a separate report indicated that the layoff rate dipped to 1.1% in April, close to an all-time low.

Continuing claims for unemployment benefits also decreased to 1.78 million, down from a post-pandemic peak of nearly 2 million a year ago. This decline is partly due to people exhausting their benefits, but also reflects ongoing hiring by companies and improved job availability. The persistence of low layoffs and low unemployment provides a significant economic buffer, supporting consumer spending and the ongoing economic expansion.

Frequently asked questions

The increase was primarily due to the timing of the Memorial Day holiday, which affects seasonal adjustments and when workers apply for benefits.

No, layoff rates remain historically low, with unadjusted claims falling and the overall layoff rate near an all-time low.

Continuing claims represent the number of people actively collecting unemployment benefits, which have also declined.

What Happens Next

01Businesses are expected to continue hiring due to low layoff rates and labor shortages.
02Consumer spending is anticipated to remain sufficient to extend the economic expansion.

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How It Developed

Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 225,000 for the week ended May 30.
This marks the highest level of new claims since early February.
The increase was influenced by the timing of the Memorial Day holiday, affecting seasonal adjustments and application timing.
The raw, unadjusted number of new jobless claims fell slightly to 187,978.
Unadjusted claims have remained below 190,000 for three consecutive weeks.
The layoff rate dipped to 1.1% in April, near an all-time low.
Continuing claims for unemployment benefits decreased to 1.78 million.
Continuing claims have fallen from a post-pandemic peak of nearly 2 million a year ago.

Sources

T1
Jobless claims rise to 4½-month high, but here’s the thing: Layoffs aren’t really risingMarketWatch
T2
Jobless claims jump to 4-month high, but don't be fooled: Layoffs ...morningstar.com
T2
Jobless claims jump to a 4-month high, but don't be fooledx.com

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