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Rabobank forecasts September ECB rate hike

Created at 1 Jun · 11:47 AM4 sources↑ Market-relevant4 events
IN SHORT

Rabobank predicts the European Central Bank will implement an additional 25 basis point rate hike in September, in addition to a hike expected next week. The bank anticipates the ECB will significantly revise its inflation projections upward, while growth forecasts may be lowered.

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Key Numbers

25bpadditional ECB rate hike forecast for September
25bpECB rate hike expected next week

Who's Involved

Rabobank
financial institution forecasting ECB policy
European Central Bank
central bank whose policy is being forecast

↳ Why This Matters

The European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions significantly influence the Eurozone's economic landscape, affecting inflation, growth, and borrowing costs. Policymakers have recently signaled a potential rate hike in June to combat inflation, with updated forecasts expected to show upward adjustments. This forecast from Rabobank suggests further tightening may be necessary beyond the immediate policy meeting.

Key facts

  • Rabobank forecasts an additional 25 basis point rate hike by the ECB in September.
  • Rabobank maintains its call for a 25 basis point rate hike by the ECB next week.
  • The bank expects the ECB will revise its inflation projections upward.
  • The bank anticipates that ECB growth projections may be weaker than previously projected.

The European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions significantly influence the Eurozone's economic landscape, affecting inflation, growth, and borrowing costs. Policymakers have recently signaled a potential rate hike in June to combat inflation, with updated forecasts expected to show upward adjustments. This forecast from Rabobank suggests further tightening may be necessary beyond the immediate policy meeting.

Frequently asked questions

A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. A 25 basis point hike means an increase of 0.25%.

The ECB is the central bank for the Eurozone, responsible for monetary policy and maintaining price stability.

Central banks like the ECB raise interest rates primarily to combat inflation by making borrowing more expensive, thereby reducing demand.

What Happens Next

01Monitoring of future ECB policy meetings and communications.
02Analysis of incoming economic data influencing ECB decisions.
03Further forecasts from financial institutions regarding ECB policy.

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Cadence
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How It Developed

2 Jun · 8:28 AM
Rabobank forecasts an additional 25 basis point ECB hike, most likely in September.
@FirstSquawk via PiQSuite
2 Jun · 8:27 AM
RaboBank Forecast An Additional 25Bp ECB Hike, Most Likely In September - Stick To Call For A 25Bp Hike Next Week - Expect ECB Will Revise Its Own Inflation Projections Up Significantly, While The Growth May Be Weaker Than Ecb Staff Projected In March
@LiveSquawk via PiQSuite
2 Jun · 7:20 AM
ECB policymakers' quotes suggest a June or July rate hike is likely to combat persistent inflation.
Reuters via PiQSuite
1 Jun · 7:34 AM
The ECB is expected to signal a more hawkish stance, leading to a rally in markets.
MTS via PiQSuite

Sources

T1
€ rates: ECB turns hawkish, markets rallym.piqsuite.com
T1
Factbox-Key ECB policymaker quotes in run-up to June 11 policy meetingm.piqsuite.com
T1
RABOBANK FORECAST AN ADDITIONAL 25BP ECB HIKE, MOST LIKELY IN SEPTEMBER@FirstSquawk via PiQSuite
T1
RaboBank Forecast An Additional 25Bp ECB Hike, Most Likely In September - Stick To Call For A 25Bp Hike Next Week - Expect ECB Will Revise Its Own Inflation Projections Up Significantly, While The Growth May Be Weaker Than Ecb Staff Projected In March@LiveSquawk via PiQSuite

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