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Dollar wavers on Middle East tensions and inflation concerns

Created at 11 Jun · 6:31 AM8 sources↑ Market-relevant8 events
IN SHORT

The dollar found footing as traders questioned imminent Middle East ceasefire reports. U.S. producer prices rose more than expected, but core readings eased inflation concerns, shifting Fed rate hike expectations to December. The euro held near a one-week high after the ECB's first rate hike in three years.

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Key Numbers

0.2%dollar up against yen
160.235yen per dollar
0.1%Australian dollar down against dollar
$0.7045Australian dollar to dollar exchange rate
0.2%kiwi dollar down against dollar
$0.5824kiwi dollar to dollar exchange rate
$1.1574euro to dollar exchange rate
$1.3415British pound to dollar exchange rate
1.8%Brent crude oil price decline
$88.76Brent crude oil price per barrel
3-1/2 yearslargest annual PPI gain
4.9%year-on-year core PPI increase
5.4%expected year-on-year core PPI increase
63.3%probability of Fed rate hike by December
25-basis-pointECB rate hike
0.5%bitcoin price increase
$63,645.84bitcoin price
0.4%ether price increase
$1,676.83ether price

Who's Involved

Donald Trump
U.S. President who halted planned strikes on Iran and suggested a peace deal
European Central Bank
delivered first interest rate hike in three years
Federal Reserve
market expects rate hike in December
Michael Wan
senior currency analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
IG
market analyst Tony Sycamore's firm
Barclays
analysts who noted ECB's hawkish revisions
Dollar wavers on Middle East tensions and inflation concerns

↳ Why This Matters

The dollar's stabilization reflects shifting geopolitical risk sentiment and evolving inflation expectations, impacting global currency markets and potentially influencing central bank policy decisions.

Key facts

  • The dollar stabilized in Asian trade, reversing some of its prior decline as traders questioned the likelihood of an imminent Middle East ceasefire.
  • U.S. producer prices rose more than anticipated in May, but the core reading suggested easing inflationary pressures.
  • Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's next rate hike shifted towards December following the producer price data.
  • The European Central Bank implemented its first interest rate increase in three years on Thursday.
  • Brent crude oil prices declined amid emerging ceasefire prospects in the Middle East.
  • Bitcoin and ether experienced slight increases in early trading.

The U.S. dollar found its footing in Asian trade, retracing some of its previous day's decline as traders questioned reports of an imminent Middle East ceasefire deal. President Donald Trump had previously halted planned U.S. strikes on Iran, suggesting a peace deal could be signed soon, which had initially weakened the dollar.

Data released Thursday showed U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in May, marking the largest annual gain in 3-1/2 years, partly due to rising energy costs from the Middle East conflict. However, the core producer price index, a key indicator for core inflation, came in below expectations, calming concerns about the Federal Reserve's inflation outlook. This led to a shift in market pricing, with expectations for the Fed's next rate hike moving towards December.

The euro held near a one-week high following the European Central Bank's first interest rate hike in three years on Thursday. The ECB implemented a 25-basis-point increase, with analysts noting hawkish revisions to inflation and growth forecasts, although future guidance on further hikes remained limited.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin edged up 0.5% to $63,645.84, while ether rose 0.4% to $1,676.83.

Frequently asked questions

The dollar stabilized as traders questioned the likelihood of an imminent Middle East ceasefire, and U.S. producer price data eased inflation concerns.

While overall producer prices rose more than expected, the core reading came in below forecasts, calming inflationary concerns and shifting expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike to December.

The ECB delivered its first interest rate hike in three years, a 25-basis-point increase, with analysts noting hawkish revisions to inflation and growth forecasts.

The ECB offered limited guidance on future hikes, but risks appeared skewed towards further action unless the inflation outlook improves quickly.

What Happens Next

01Markets will continue to monitor Middle East developments and their impact on energy prices and geopolitical risk.
02The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision at its upcoming meeting.
03The European Central Bank is widely expected to lift interest rates again in September.

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Cadence
CME Headlines
  • 10-Year Treasury Note yields rose on Middle East supply risks.
    8 Jul · 8:03 PM
  • 10-Year Treasury Note yields rose on Middle East supply risks.
    8 Jul · 8:03 PM
  • Japanese Yen futures fell near multi-decade lows.
    8 Jul · 7:57 PM

How It Developed

The dollar weakened due to Middle East tensions and rising U.S. inflation, while the euro firmed on expected ECB rate hikes.
European shares edged higher amid Middle East tensions and ahead of the ECB rate outlook.
The euro held steady near recent lows ahead of an expected ECB rate hike, with focus on future guidance.
The euro eased after the ECB hiked rates, while the dollar strengthened due to renewed Iran tensions and higher U.S. producer prices.
The dollar fell as President Donald Trump halted planned U.S. strikes on Iran, citing progress in negotiations.
The dollar steadied as ceasefire prospects emerged, while US producer price data eased pressure on the Fed.
The dollar found its footing as traders questioned reports of an imminent Middle East ceasefire deal.
U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in May, with core readings easing inflationary concerns.

Sources

T1
Global Market | European shares edge higher ahead of ECB rate verdict; Mideast tensions eyedThe Economic Times
T1
Dollar steadies on ceasefire prospects, PPI eases pressure on FedThe Economic Times
T1
Euro awaits ECB rate hike, dollar mutedReuters via PiQSuite
T1
Euro eases after ECB hike; dollar steadies near two-month high on Iran tensionsReuters via PiQSuite
T1
Dollar falls after Trump halts US strikes on IranReuters via PiQSuite
T1
Dollar steadies on ceasefire prospects, PPI eases pressure on FedReuters via PiQSuite
T1
Dollar steadies as traders question prospects for near-term ceasefireReuters via PiQSuite
T1
Dollar wavers as investors ponder rate outlook, Middle East worriesPiQSuite
T2
Dollar wavers as investors ponder rate outlook, Middle East worries ...reuters.com
T2
Dollar shaky as investors weigh rate outlook, Middle East worrieseconomictimes.indiatimes.com
T2
Stock Quotes, Business News and Data from Stock Markets | MSN Moneymsn.com

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