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Dollar Plunges as Weak US Jobs Data Fuels Fed Rate Cut Bets

Created at 7 Aug · 9:26 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

The US dollar experienced its sharpest intraday fall in over a year after a surprisingly weak July jobs report. The data intensified speculation that the Federal Reserve may pivot towards cutting interest rates, despite earlier hawkish guidance.

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Key Numbers

73,000US jobs added in July
110,000Expected US jobs added in July
14,000Revised June job gain
4.2%July unemployment rate
4.1%June unemployment rate
1.23%Dollar index drop
98.80Dollar index level
1.37%Euro surge against dollar
$1.1571Euro-dollar exchange rate
2.23%Dollar drop against yen
147.37Dollar-yen exchange rate

Who's Involved

Federal Reserve
Central bank whose rate decisions are now expected to shift towards cuts
Jerome Powell
Fed Chair whose earlier hawkish guidance is being re-evaluated
Helen Given
Director of trading at Money USA, commenting on the jobs data
Dollar Plunges as Weak US Jobs Data Fuels Fed Rate Cut Bets

↳ Why This Matters

The weak US jobs report has significantly altered market expectations for Federal Reserve policy, increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts and weakening the dollar. This shift could impact global financial markets, currency valuations, and the cost of borrowing.

Key facts

  • The US dollar fell sharply against major currencies after a weaker-than-expected jobs report for July.
  • US non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 110,000.
  • The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in July, up from 4.1% in June.
  • The dollar index saw its largest one-day drop since January 2023, falling 1.23%.
  • The euro and Japanese yen rallied significantly against the dollar following the jobs data.

The US dollar experienced a significant decline against major currencies on Friday, following the release of surprisingly weak employment data for July. The US economy added only 73,000 jobs, falling short of economists' expectations of 110,000, and the prior month's job gains were sharply revised downwards. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% in June, further signaling a potential slowdown in economic strength.

This disappointing labor market report triggered a broad-based selloff in the dollar, as traders rapidly reassessed the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Market speculation intensified that the Fed might pivot towards interest rate cuts sooner than anticipated, potentially as early as September, despite previous hawkish signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies, plunged 1.23% to its lowest level since mid-June. The euro saw a substantial gain, surging 1.37% to $1.1571, marking its largest one-day increase since April. The Japanese yen also rallied sharply, with the dollar falling 2.23% against the yen to 147.37, its steepest daily decline since January 2023.

Frequently asked questions

The key data was the US employment report for July, which showed fewer jobs added than expected and a slight increase in the unemployment rate.

The US dollar plunged against major currencies, experiencing its sharpest intraday fall in over a year.

The weak jobs data has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates sooner than previously anticipated, possibly in September.

What Happens Next

01Traders are now betting on a September Fed rate cut.
02Further economic data releases will be scrutinized for Fed policy clues.

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Cadence
CME Headlines
  • Euro futures rally to eight-week high on shifting rate outlook.
    7 Aug · 9:00 PM
  • Euro futures rally to eight-week high on shifting rate outlook.
    7 Aug · 9:00 PM
  • 2-Year Note futures climbed on negative job creation data.
    7 Aug · 9:00 PM

How It Developed

The US economy lost 23,000 jobs in July.
The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% with a near five-and-a-half year low labor participation rate of 61.4%.
The US economy added just 73,000 jobs in July, below economists' expectations of 110,000.
June's job gain was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000.
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1% in June.
The dollar index plunged 1.23% to 98.80.
The euro surged 1.37% to $1.1571.
The dollar dropped 2.23% against the yen to 147.37 yen.

Sources

T1
Dollar drops as weak US jobs data pushes out Fed hike expectationsPiQSuite
T2
Dollar plunges as weak US jobs data fuels bets on Fed rate cutswionews.com

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