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Bond yields climb, oil extends gains as US-Iran ceasefire expires

Created at 18 Aug · 4:21 AM2 sources↑ Market-relevant2 events
IN SHORT

Bond yields surged to multi-decade highs as a US-Iran ceasefire expired, prompting Iran to threaten a military shift. Oil prices extended gains for a third day, with Brent crude around $91 per barrel.

Key Numbers

5.321%US 30-year Treasury bond yield high
June 2007highest 30-year Treasury yield since
4.7259%benchmark 10-year Treasury yield
0.4basis point increase in 10-year Treasury yield
2.945%Japanese government bond yield
30 yearshighest Japanese government bond yield in
3 daysoil price gains
$91Brent crude price per barrel
0.7%MSCI ex-Japan shares index fall
1.5%South Korea's KOSPI fall
2.1%Nikkei 225 slump
0.3%S&P 500 e-mini futures fall
0.4%pan-region European futures fall
0.5%
German DAX futures fall

Who's Involved

Iran
threatened to shift to a "fully offensive" military posture
U.S.
ruled out extending temporary ceasefire agreement with Iran
Donald Trump
US President threatening to bomb Oman
Federal Reserve
expected to refrain from hiking interest rates
Gregor Stuart Hunter
author of the Morning Bid column
Bond yields climb, oil extends gains as US-Iran ceasefire expires

↳ Why This Matters

Rising bond yields and oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation fears, signal increased market volatility and potential economic headwinds. The expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire and threats of military escalation heighten global risk, impacting energy markets and investor sentiment worldwide.

Key facts

  • The US 30-year Treasury bond yield reached 5.321%, its highest level since June 2007.
  • Oil prices extended gains for a third consecutive day, with Brent crude around $91 per barrel.
  • A US-Iran ceasefire agreement expired, leading Iran to threaten a "fully offensive" military posture.
  • Asian stocks declined, with the MSCI ex-Japan index down 0.7%.

Bond yields climbed to levels not seen in decades as the conflict in the Middle East worsened and investors feared the effect on inflation. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond hit its highest level since June 2007 on Tuesday, reaching an intraday high of 5.321%. This occurred as a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran would shift to a "fully offensive" military posture because efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the war with the U.S. have stalled, and Washington ruled out extending a temporary ceasefire agreement that expired on Monday.

Oil prices extended their gains for a third consecutive day, with Brent crude around $91 per barrel. The prospect of higher energy prices, alongside signals from the U.S. central bank over the path ahead, spilled over into global fixed income markets. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond was up 0.4 basis point at 4.7259%, while corresponding Japanese government bond yields climbed 2.5 basis points to 2.945%, a three-decade high.

Underscoring diplomatic strains, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to bomb Oman if they "get in the way" of negotiations around the future of the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf state is the latest American ally to attract his ire this week, following South Korea and Canada. The selloff in global fixed income weighed on equities in the Asian trading session, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan off 0.7%, dragged down by a 1.5% fall in South Korea's KOSPI. The Nikkei 225 slumped 2.1%, while S&P 500 e-mini futures were down 0.3%. In early European trades, pan-region futures were down 0.4%, German DAX futures were 0.5% lower, and FTSE futures were flat.

Frequently asked questions

Bond yields climbed following the expiration of a US-Iran ceasefire and threats from Tehran to adopt a "fully offensive" military posture, increasing geopolitical risk and inflation fears.

The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond reached an intraday high of 5.321%, its highest level since June 2007.

Oil prices have been rising for three consecutive days.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, and threats to its security can significantly impact energy markets.

What Happens Next

01UK unemployment rate and average weekly earnings data release.
02Euro Zone ZEW Survey Expectations for August.
03Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment for August.
04UK 10-year government debt auction.
CME Headlines
  • 10-Year note futures test low end of range as yield curve steepens.
    17 Aug · 7:54 PM
  • 10-Year note futures test low end of range as yield curve steepens.
    17 Aug · 7:54 PM
  • Yield curve shifts and Fed minutes set the stage for.
    14 Aug · 8:47 PM

How It Developed

A US-Iran ceasefire agreement expired on Monday.
Iran threatened to shift to a "fully offensive" military posture.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond hit its highest level since June 2007 at 5.321%.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond was up 0.4 basis point at 4.7259%.
Japanese government bond yields climbed 2.5 basis points to 2.945%, a three-decade high.
Brent crude oil prices were up for a third consecutive day, around $91 per barrel.
US President Donald Trump threatened to bomb Oman.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.7%.

Sources

T1
Morning Bid: Bond investors in revolt as Iran threatens to go 'fully offensive'Reuters
T1
Bond yields jump, oil extends gains as US-Iran ceasefire expiresPiQSuite
T2
Bond yields jump, oil extends gains as US-Iran ceasefire expires | New ...nst.com.my

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