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Bitcoin Falls as US Jobless Claims Decline, Fueling Fed Rate Hike Fears

Created at 6 Aug · 9:26 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Bitcoin experienced a decline, trading at $64,384.27, as U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 199,000, signaling a tight labor market. This data increases concerns that the Federal Reserve may maintain restrictive monetary policy or even implement further rate hikes.

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Key Numbers

$64,384.27Bitcoin price at press time
199,000US initial jobless claims
198,750Four-week moving average of jobless claims
54.71%Chance of 25-basis-point Fed rate hike

Who's Involved

Federal Reserve
Policymakers facing pressure to maintain restrictive monetary policy
Kevin Warsh
Reportedly working on a new approach to central bank communication
US Department of Labor
Released the latest initial jobless claims data

↳ Why This Matters

The decline in Bitcoin reflects broader market concerns that a strong U.S. labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for longer, impacting risk assets and investment strategies.

Key facts

  • Bitcoin's price dropped to $64,384.27.
  • US initial jobless claims fell to 199,000 for the week ending August 1.
  • The decline in jobless claims suggests ongoing labor market tightness.
  • Strong employment data raises concerns about the Federal Reserve maintaining restrictive monetary policy.
  • Traders are pricing in a 54.71% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in September.
  • Bitcoin's price declined on Thursday, falling to $64,384.27, as investors reacted to positive U.S. employment data and heightened concerns about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1 came in at 199,000, lower than the 204,000 predicted by economists, indicating continued strength in the labor market.

    The four-week moving average for jobless claims also saw a decrease, reaching 198,750. This robust employment data suggests the Federal Reserve has more leeway to maintain its restrictive monetary policy, potentially leading to further interest rate hikes. Traders are now pricing in a 54.71% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase at the upcoming September Fed meeting, according to CME FedWatch Tool data.

    Historically, higher interest rates tend to negatively impact risk assets like Bitcoin, as they increase the attractiveness of traditional yield-bearing products and reduce available cash for investment. Bitcoin had previously tested resistance around the $65,000 level but failed to close above it, with sellers emerging near that point and pushing the price back towards the $64,000 support area. The cryptocurrency is currently holding above crucial support levels, with a move below these points potentially triggering further selling pressure.

    Frequently asked questions

    Bitcoin dropped due to better-than-expected U.S. initial jobless claims data, which increased fears that the Federal Reserve might continue with restrictive monetary policy or raise interest rates.

    Seasonally adjusted initial claims hit 199,000 for the week ending August 1, which was slightly higher than the previous week's revised 198,000 but still indicated labor market tightness.

    Traders are betting on a 54.71% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting.

    Higher interest rates generally make risk assets like Bitcoin less attractive as cash becomes less available and traditional yield products become more appealing.

    What Happens Next

    01Market participants await the Federal Reserve's September meeting for policy direction.
    02Traders will monitor upcoming economic data for further clues on inflation and labor market trends.

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    Cadence
    CME Headlines
    • 10-Year Treasury Note yields rose 6 bps as oil prices climbed.
      6 Aug · 9:40 PM
    • 10-Year Treasury Note yields rose 6 bps as oil prices climbed.
      6 Aug · 9:40 PM
    • Euro futures fell from weekly highs as dollar caught a bid.
      6 Aug · 9:28 PM

    How It Developed

    Bitcoin price fell on Thursday.
    US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1 were 199,000.
    The four-week moving average of jobless claims decreased to 198,750.
    Strong labor data increased fears of a potential Federal Reserve rate hike.
    Traders are betting on a 54.71% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September Fed meeting.

    Sources

    T1
    Bitcoin Drops As US Initial Jobless Claims Decline Amid Fed Rate Hike FearsCoinGape

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