Key facts
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky believes Russian election results will not impact the war's escalation.
- Zelensky suggested that the elections could lead to increased mobilization efforts in Russia.
- Polls indicate a decline in President Vladimir Putin's approval ratings.
- Support for the invasion has reportedly decreased in regions bordering Ukraine.
- Zelensky cited the high cost of contract soldiers as a reason Putin might opt for mobilization.
- A CSIS report estimated significant Russian battlefield casualties by December 2025.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the upcoming Russian parliamentary elections, scheduled for September 18-20, are unlikely to alter the course of the war in Ukraine. However, he suggested that the election results could accelerate mobilization efforts within Russia. Zelensky made these remarks on July 15 at the Ukraine-Southeast Europe Summit in Kyiv.
Zelensky noted that public support for the war has significantly decreased, particularly in regions bordering Ukraine, where residents have directly experienced the conflict's consequences. He indicated that President Vladimir Putin might resort to increasing mobilization due to the financial strain and difficulty in recruiting contract soldiers. This potential move comes amid fuel shortages and rising prices in Russia, exacerbated by Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil infrastructure.
Recent polls from a state-run agency showed a slight decline in Putin's approval ratings and trust. However, the accuracy of these results cannot be independently verified. The potential for a second mobilization carries significant political risks for the Kremlin, as a previous partial mobilization in September 2022 sparked protests and emigration.
An analyst from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) described a potential mobilization as a "huge gamble" for Putin that could put him and his regime at risk. A January CSIS report estimated Russia had sustained approximately 1.2 million battlefield casualties by December 2025, including up to 325,000 troops killed, necessitating a continuous recruitment effort.