Key facts
- The U.S. is increasing efforts to pull Iraq away from Chinese and Russian influence.
- President Trump met with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi to discuss a new cooperation framework.
- The U.S. aims to replace Iraq's existing energy and infrastructure deals with China with U.S. agreements.
- China has secured significant cooperation deals with Iraq since 2019, including infrastructure development and rights for security forces.
- Proposed U.S.-Iraq cooperation will encompass energy, infrastructure, and security across all Iraqi regions, including Kurdistan.
Washington is intensifying its efforts to shift Iraq away from the spheres of influence of China and Russia, viewing the Middle East as critical for its geopolitical and economic interests. The U.S. sees Iraq as a strategic bridge between its Asian and European blocs, a location for vital military bases, and a source of oil and gas crucial for China's economic and military expansion.
Recent high-level discussions, including a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, signal a renewed push to establish a new cooperation framework. The primary objective is to replace Iraq's extensive existing agreements with China, particularly in the energy sector, with similar or superior deals with the United States.
China has established a significant presence in Iraq through agreements like the 'Oil for Reconstruction and Investment' deal of 2019 and the expanded 'Iraq-China Framework Agreement' of 2021. These agreements have provided Chinese firms with substantial discounts on oil and gas, along with rights to station security forces, develop extensive infrastructure including road and rail networks, and utilize Iraqi ports and airports. Notable projects include infrastructure development in Al-Zubair, a new civilian airport in Dhi Qar, and the development of Al-Sadr City.
The U.S. is confident in its ability to fund and implement comparable cooperation initiatives. However, a key prerequisite is weakening the ties between Iraq and Iran, which is described as Beijing's principal client state in the Middle East. The political landscape has shifted with President Trump's more assertive approach and the arrival of Prime Minister al-Zaidi.
An additional challenge for the U.S. is Iraq's strict anti-normalization law passed in May 2022, which criminalizes relations with Israel, making any U.S.-brokered agreement involving Tel Aviv politically unfeasible for now. The proposed solution involves a comprehensive set of agreements between the U.S. and Iraq covering energy, infrastructure, and security across all regions, including the semi-autonomous Kurdish area. Washington views securing cooperation with the Kurdish Regional Government as crucial to countering Beijing and Moscow's long-term ambitions in the Middle East.