Key facts
- Ukraine has escalated its drone campaign, targeting Russian military assets, oil infrastructure, and retail warehouses.
- These strikes aim to pressure Russia and impact ordinary citizens, while also targeting defense manufacturing.
- The campaign includes strikes on Russia's largest oil refinery and navigation system factories.
- Ukraine utilizes Elon Musk's Starlink for real-time drone control in occupied territories.
- The strikes occur amidst challenges for Ukraine in defending against Russian attacks due to missile shortages.
During a February 2025 meeting, U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that his country was "not winning" and "don't have the cards." This exchange occurred amidst the ongoing war with Russia, and the Ukrainian delegation was subsequently asked to leave the White House, with Washington briefly suspending intelligence sharing.
Despite this diplomatic tension and Russia's battlefield gains, Ukraine was preparing a campaign of strikes against Russia. Months later, these operations began, with Ukrainian drones attacking Russian bombers and damaging aircraft valued at hundreds of millions of dollars. Since then, Kyiv has escalated its long-range strikes within Russia and in occupied territories, increased weapons production, and targeted Russian air defenses and oil infrastructure.
These strikes have had visible impacts, including plumes of smoke over St. Petersburg and contributing to a summer fuel crisis due to attacks on oil refineries. By July, President Trump acknowledged Zelenskyy's effectiveness in the war, stating they had developed a good relationship. However, as Ukraine's strikes have intensified, so have Russia's, and Kyiv faces significant challenges in defense due to shortages of U.S.-supplied Patriot air defense missiles.
According to the U.N., over 1,300 civilians were killed in Ukraine in the first six months of the year, with Russian authorities reporting around 250 civilian deaths in the same period. A recent strike on a Russian oil refinery killed 13 people. Experts suggest Ukraine's campaign aims to disrupt the narrative that Russia can sustain the conflict indefinitely, but its ultimate success hinges on inflicting sufficient pain and continued international support.
Ukraine's longer-range attacks have dramatically increased this year, forcing Russia to stretch its air defenses. The strikes focus on four key categories: oil infrastructure to deny Kremlin revenue, defense manufacturing to impair Russia's long-term weapon production, air defenses to clear paths for Ukrainian arms, and retail warehouses to bring the conflict's impact to ordinary Russians. Notable targets include Russia's largest oil refinery, a navigation systems factory, and Wildberries warehouses. Strikes around Crimea, often with drones, aim to render the peninsula unusable as a staging ground for Russian forces. Ukraine's use of Elon Musk's Starlink provides an advantage for real-time drone control in Russian-held territory.