Key facts
- Ukraine is intensifying its military campaign against Russian infrastructure in occupied Crimea.
- Underground resistance in Crimea is growing, with increased volunteer contacts and information sharing.
- The shift in resistance is from open activism to clandestine information gathering.
- Ukrainian strikes on targets like power plants and bridges are aided by intelligence from local resistance members.
- Crimea's unique status within Russian-occupied territories leads to a different form of repression and surveillance.
Ukraine's intensified military campaign against Russian infrastructure in occupied Crimea has coincided with a significant increase in underground resistance activities behind Russian lines. The number of individuals contacting Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SOF) and groups like Atesh has risen, fueled by successful Ukrainian strikes and a growing belief in the peninsula's eventual liberation.
According to SOF, the resistance movement is spreading and gaining momentum, serving as confirmation to residents that the occupying administration lacks complete control. This surge follows Ukraine's ongoing efforts to isolate Crimea by disrupting its military and commercial infrastructure, leading to fuel shortages, blackouts, and severed logistics routes.
Jade McGlynn, a research fellow at King's College London, noted that resistance in Crimea has evolved from open civic activism to clandestine work, shifting from "expressive to instrumental resistance." She explained that the "symbolic register of graffiti, ribbons, leaflets carries an extremely poor risk-return ratio against an occupier this punitive." Instead, quiet, low-signature information work, such as observing and passing coordinates, has grown, yielding a larger strategic effect, especially with Ukraine's successful strikes.
McGlynn also highlighted that Russian authorities treat Crimea more as part of Russia than other occupied regions, resulting in repression that often carries a legal veneer. This includes a denser informant ecology due to a 12-year build-up of the FSB, a larger settler and security service population, and an embedded surveillance apparatus.
Atesh regularly monitors Russian military logistics, air defense systems, and troop concentrations, passing intelligence to Ukraine's military. The group reported gathering intelligence on the FSB in Dzhankoy, noting the movements of personnel and equipment. SOF has publicly credited resistance members with assisting in operations, including a strike on a railway bridge across the North Crimean Canal and drone strikes on the Balaklava Thermal Power Plant, which supplies nearly 50% of Crimea's electricity.
SOF stated that information from resistance members is as crucial as data from satellites and aerial reconnaissance, significantly shortening the time between target identification and strike execution. Crimea's strategic importance as home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet and air bases makes intelligence from local informants highly valuable.
Despite years of occupation, pro-Ukrainian sentiment persists, becoming more cautious and seeking safer support methods. Ukrainian military successes have altered Crimeans' perspectives, encouraging more to risk helping Ukraine despite severe consequences. McGlynn observed that when Ukraine's position strengthens, resistance rises, as actions like disabling infrastructure change the risk-return calculation for committed individuals. The Kremlin's denial of serious problems caused by Ukrainian drones, leading to issues like power and water outages, further benefits Ukraine by infuriating residents.