Key facts
- The Ukraine war front line saw minimal change in June, with Russia making a net gain of only 30 square kilometers.
- This represents a significant slowdown in Russian advances compared to previous periods.
- Ukraine gained territory in the southern Zaporizhzhia and central Dnipropetrovsk regions.
- Russian forces lost approximately 403 square kilometers in April and May.
- The effectiveness of Ukrainian drone strikes has hobbled Russian advances since late 2025.
The frontline in Ukraine remained largely static in June, with Russian advances faltering significantly, according to an analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) conducted by AFP.
Russian forces achieved a net gain of only 30 square kilometers in June, primarily in the northeastern Kharkiv region. The ISW noted that these gains were largely due to previous incursions being upgraded to advances as more evidence emerged. In contrast, Ukrainian forces gained 11 square kilometers in the southern Zaporizhzhia region and 18 square kilometers in the central Dnipropetrovsk region, though the scope and outcomes of these counterattacks remain unclear.
This slowdown marks a substantial shift from earlier in the conflict. Moscow lost approximately 403 square kilometers in April and May, and Russia's overall advance has been hampered since late 2025 by the increasing effectiveness of Ukraine's drone strikes. April was the first month in two and a half years where Russian forces gave up more ground than they captured, a trend Ukraine built upon in May.
On average, Russian forces have advanced about 15 square kilometers per month in 2026, a stark contrast to the 405 square kilometers per month seen in 2025. These estimates exclude advances claimed by Russia that the ISW has neither confirmed nor denied. Currently, Moscow occupies just over 19% of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of the Donbas region, which were already under Russian or separatist control before the full-scale invasion in February 2022.