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Saudi nuclear pact sparks fears of regional enrichment free-for-all

Created at 22 Jul · 11:31 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

A new U.S. nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia, which could allow uranium enrichment within a decade, is raising alarms among U.S. lawmakers who fear it could trigger a regional arms race and unravel nonproliferation efforts, particularly concerning Iran's nuclear ambitions.

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Key Numbers

30-yearnuclear cooperation agreement duration
two-thirdsCongressional majority needed to block the deal
2009year of UAE "gold standard" nuclear agreement
Oct. 7, 2023date of attacks on Israel

Who's Involved

Saudi Arabia
signatory to new U.S. nuclear cooperation agreement
United States
signatory to new nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia
Sen. Chris Murphy
Democrat from Connecticut, member of Senate Foreign Relations Committee, critical of Saudi Arabia
Sen. John Kennedy
Republican from Louisiana, concerned about nuclear proliferation
Sen. John Barrasso
Republican from Wyoming, member of Senate Foreign Relations Committee, concerned about Iran's nuclear program
Secretary of State Marco Rubio
rejected concerns about nuclear technology spread
Energy Secretary Chris Wright
stated agreements uphold highest standards of nuclear safety and nonproliferation
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, previously stated Riyadh would develop a nuclear weapon if Iran did
Andrea Stricker
expert on nuclear weapons proliferation at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Sen. Ron Johnson
Republican from Wisconsin, surprised by the administration's deal
Victoria Coates
former Trump administration official, now at Heritage Foundation
Sen. Mike Rounds
Republican from South Dakota, comfortable with enrichment depending on specifics
Jonathan Panikoff
former career intelligence official, now at Atlantic Council

↳ Why This Matters

This agreement risks igniting a regional nuclear arms race and undermining decades of U.S. nonproliferation policy, potentially destabilizing an already volatile Middle East and pushing adversaries like Iran closer to nuclear weapons capability.

Key facts

  • The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have signed a 30-year nuclear cooperation agreement.
  • The deal permits U.S. companies to export nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia.
  • Concerns exist that the pact could allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium, potentially fueling a regional nuclear arms race.
  • Lawmakers warn the agreement could push Iran closer to developing nuclear weapons.
  • The deal does not include the "Additional Protocol" for broader inspections, unlike previous U.S. nonproliferation agreements.

The United States has finalized a 30-year nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia, a deal that has ignited significant concerns among U.S. lawmakers about potential nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. The agreement, announced Wednesday, permits private American nuclear companies to export to the Saudi market and establishes a framework for U.S. safeguards. However, it has drawn criticism for potentially allowing Saudi Arabia to enrich its own uranium within a decade, a capability that critics fear could trigger a regional arms race and push Iran closer to developing nuclear weapons.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) argued that the timing of the announcement, amid ongoing regional conflicts, has an immediate effect on the fighting and could push Iran further toward nuclear armament. Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) echoed these concerns, worrying about nuclear proliferation not only in the Middle East but also in Japan and South Korea. The deal's potential to enable domestic uranium enrichment by Saudi Arabia is seen by some as a departure from the U.S.'s long-standing nonproliferation policy, which has historically insisted on a "gold standard" no-enrichment pledge from partners.

Critics, including Andrea Stricker of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, warn that the U.S. allowing Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium could open a "Pandora's Box," encouraging other nations like Turkey, Egypt, and the UAE to pursue similar capabilities. Furthermore, the agreement reportedly does not include the "Additional Protocol" with the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, which provides inspectors broader access to undeclared sites, a key component of previous U.S. nonproliferation efforts. The U.S. administration and Saudi Arabia, however, maintain that the agreement upholds the highest standards of nuclear safety and nonproliferation.

Despite the concerns, blocking the agreement in Congress would be challenging, requiring a veto-proof two-thirds majority. Some officials, like Victoria Coates, believe the risks can be mitigated through close oversight. Others, like Sen. Mike Rounds, are open to the idea depending on the specific enrichment levels, suggesting that if it's for civilian power, it might be acceptable, and better for the U.S. to be involved than rivals like Russia or China, as suggested by Jonathan Panikoff. The agreement is the culmination of nearly two decades of discussions and was initially considered a sweetener for normalizing ties with Israel, a linkage that was later separated.

Frequently asked questions

The primary concern is that the deal could allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium, potentially leading to a regional nuclear arms race and encouraging Iran to pursue nuclear weapons.

No, the deal does not guarantee enrichment. If it occurs, it is expected to be at least a decade away and would be subject to specific arrangements.

The "Additional Protocol" grants U.N. nuclear watchdog inspectors broader access to catch covert nuclear activity. Its absence from the Saudi deal is seen as a departure from the U.S.'s "gold standard" for nonproliferation.

Yes, Congress can block the agreement, but it would require a veto-proof two-thirds majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

What Happens Next

01Congress has the power to review and potentially block the nuclear agreement.
02Saudi Arabia and the U.S. will jointly study the feasibility of enriching uranium in the country.
03Any future enrichment activities would occur under a "black box" arrangement meant to prevent technology transfer.

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Cadence

How It Developed

The U.S. and Saudi Arabia announced a 30-year nuclear cooperation agreement.
The deal allows private American nuclear companies to export to Saudi Arabia and establishes a framework for U.S. safeguards.
Lawmakers express concern that the agreement could enable Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium, potentially pushing Iran closer to developing nuclear weapons.
Some U.S. officials argue that the timing of the announcement, amid regional conflicts, exacerbates tensions with Iran.
Critics point out that the deal falls short of the 'gold standard' set by previous agreements, such as the one with the UAE, by not requiring an "Additional Protocol" for broader inspections and poten
The agreement does not guarantee Saudi enrichment, but any such activity is anticipated to be at least a decade away.
The U.S. administration and Saudi Arabia state the deal upholds high standards of nuclear safety and nonproliferation.
Concerns are raised that the U.S. deal could prompt Russia and China to offer similar technologies to other nations, increasing proliferation risks.

Sources

T1
‘Pandora’s Box’: Saudi nuclear pact stokes fears of regional enrichment free-for-allPolitico

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