Key facts
- Saudi Arabia is preparing for a major military offensive against Houthis in central Yemen.
- The offensive may involve sea and land routes, with Saudi forces reportedly withdrawing from eastern Yemen.
- Riyadh is organizing a multinational naval coalition to protect shipping in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab strait.
- Fourteen countries, including Turkey and Pakistan, have supported the maritime defense coalition.
- The Houthis imposed a blockade on Saudi ships on July 20, demanding an end to the blockade on Yemen.
- Saudi Arabia intervened in Yemen in 2015 to support the UN-recognized government against Houthi rebels.
Saudi Arabia is reportedly preparing for a significant military offensive against Houthi rebels in central Yemen, employing both sea and land strategies. This move is seen as an effort to break the Houthi chokehold on crucial oil export routes through the southern Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait.
Sources indicate that Saudi forces have been observed withdrawing from eastern Yemen, which could signal preparations for a land offensive. Concurrently, Riyadh is working to assemble a naval coalition aimed at safeguarding shipping from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait. The Saudi defense ministry announced on Thursday that 14 nations, including Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Sudan, and Djibouti, have issued a joint statement endorsing a multinational maritime defense coalition.
The Iran-aligned Houthis, who currently control Yemen's capital, Sana'a, and a substantial portion of its Red Sea coastline, declared a blockade against Saudi ships on July 20. However, they deny plans to impose tolls on all vessels. The group states that the blockade will be lifted once Saudi Arabia ends its blockade on Yemen, framing the dispute as being about Yemen's future rather than directly involving Iran. Saudi Arabia entered the Yemeni civil war in 2015 to support the country's UN-recognized government against the Houthi rebels.
Riyadh has also approached the United States and several European countries, including Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Italy, to join the Red Sea coalition. The European Union already maintains a naval protection mission, Aspides, in the Red Sea, and it remains unclear whether the Houthi blockade is general or specifically targets Saudi Arabia.
Houthi forces claimed on July 25 to have struck "sensitive" oil transport sites within Saudi Arabia that connect eastern oilfields to a Red Sea export hub. If the Red Sea route becomes inaccessible to Saudi shipping, in addition to potential blockades of the Strait of Hormuz on the Arabian Peninsula's other side, the kingdom's oil exports would be severely restricted. Before the recent escalation of tensions, up to 80% of Saudi crude exports transited the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, the Red Sea has gained importance, with over half of Saudi oil now transported overland to loading terminals at the port city of Yanbu.
In related developments, Saudi strikes in Iraq on Wednesday reportedly killed at least 20 individuals in retaliation for an Iraqi militia's attacks on Saudi oil facilities. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the joint U.S.-Saudi attacks had the agreement of the Iraqi government, a claim not confirmed by Baghdad. Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman held an urgent meeting with Trump and JD Vance on Wednesday to discuss subsequent actions. The Saudis are keen to demonstrate their defensive capabilities but are reportedly unwilling to escalate conflict with Iran, believing diplomatic solutions are still possible.
Troop movements within Yemen involve concentrating forces for a potential assault on al-Bayda, a central southern governorate captured by the Houthis in 2020-21. Fighting between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia has escalated in the past fortnight, with Houthi attacks targeting Saudi Aramco facilities. These strikes occurred shortly after Saudi airstrikes hit Houthi-controlled sites in the port of Hodeidah, and a third Saudi commercial vessel was attacked in the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have been competing for control of Yemen for over a decade, and the recent month has seen the unraveling of a fragile status quo. Tensions could potentially ease if Gulf States and Iran reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with ongoing talks between Oman and Iran addressing Iran's demand for all shipping to use a northern route near its coast.