Key facts
- Andrei Klepach, chief economist at VEB.RF, was reportedly fired on August 16.
- Klepach's dismissal is linked to his May remarks warning of Russia's economic and technological decline.
- He stated Russia was losing competition with the West and predicted a future social crisis.
- Klepach noted Ukraine's economy was surviving with substantial Western financial aid.
- The firing reportedly followed an order from authorities above VEB.RF's head.
Andrei Klepach, the chief economist at VEB.RF, a significant state-controlled Russian bank, was reportedly dismissed on August 16. This action followed the widespread circulation of his remarks from May, in which he warned that Russia was losing its economic and technological competition with the West and predicted the country would eventually face a social crisis.
According to reports from independent media outlets, Klepach stated that Russia would be unable to sustain a prolonged confrontation and was falling behind not only China and the United States but also, in some respects, Ukraine. He noted that despite Ukraine's economic destruction and demographic challenges, its economy was surviving with substantial financial assistance, enabling military spending and expenditures that amounted to nearly half of Russia's budget.
Klepach, who had served as VEB.RF's chief economist for 12 years, also expressed that Russia would not win a war of attrition and that Western economies had not collapsed as some in Russia might have expected. He concluded that while Russia would not fall apart, it would continue to fall further behind economically, leading to social consequences.
Sources familiar with the matter indicated that Igor Shuvalov, the head of VEB.RF, dismissed Klepach following an order from higher authorities, directly linking the firing to his May statements. Klepach had a prior decade-long career at Russia's Economic Development Ministry, serving as deputy minister from 2008 to 2014.