Key facts
- Russia is struggling to find enough soldiers for the war in Ukraine due to high casualties and slowing voluntary recruitment.
- The Kremlin is avoiding a second mass mobilization, instead using paid voluntary contracts and increasingly coercive recruitment tactics.
- Western estimates suggest Russian casualties exceed 30,000 killed and wounded monthly.
- Moscow recruits around 1,000 soldiers daily, primarily to replenish existing units.
- A new law expands the eligibility of convicted prisoners for army contracts.
- Regional authorities are incentivized to meet recruitment targets, with significant funds paid to recruiters.
Russia is facing a significant challenge in replenishing its military ranks for the ongoing war in Ukraine, as voluntary recruitment slows and battlefield losses mount. The Kremlin is reportedly attempting to avoid another deeply unpopular mass mobilization, similar to the one in September 2022, by relying on high-paid voluntary contracts and increasingly coercive recruitment tactics.
Despite official denials, speculation about a potential new call-up is circulating among Russians, with some anticipating it after upcoming elections. Activists report that men are being detained, pressured, and even threatened into signing contracts, with recruiters targeting vulnerable individuals and expanding efforts to include university students and convicted prisoners. Regional authorities are under pressure to meet recruitment targets, with substantial financial incentives offered to recruiters.
Western estimates place Russian casualties at over 30,000 killed and wounded per month, necessitating a constant influx of new soldiers primarily to replace losses rather than expand offensive capabilities. The political risks associated with another mass mobilization, which previously led to domestic disruption and a drop in Putin's approval ratings, appear to be a key factor in the Kremlin's current strategy. Analysts suggest that Moscow will likely escalate recruitment efforts through higher bonuses and intensified pressure, but the ultimate success of these measures remains uncertain.