Key facts
- Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that the next few months could be critical.
- Reports suggest Moscow may be planning a limited military provocation against Poland.
- The U.S. has reportedly warned Poland about new Russian plans targeting NATO's eastern flank.
- Concerns about Russian threats are particularly high in the Baltic states.
- Poland is preparing for various scenarios in response to the potential threat.
Poland is preparing for potential Russian military provocations, with Prime Minister Donald Tusk warning that the coming months could be "critical." These concerns are particularly acute in the Baltic states.
Reports from Polish media outlet Onet, citing five anonymous sources, indicate that Moscow might be orchestrating a limited military provocation aimed at Poland. The intention, according to one source, is to escalate tensions and diminish support for Ukraine. The U.S. has reportedly alerted Warsaw to "new Russian plans for a conventional attack on NATO's eastern flank," with Poland not being excluded from these potential targets.
Western officials and intelligence agencies have recently voiced concerns about possible Russian operations in Poland or the Baltic countries, designed to test the cohesion of NATO. Tusk, while urging against fear, stressed the importance of preparation and acknowledging the threat. These warnings emerge amidst reported strains between the U.S. and its European allies, including the U.S. administration's review of its military presence in Europe.
Poland, situated between Russia's Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus, has previously responded to Russian aggression, notably by downing Russian drones that entered its airspace during an attack on Ukraine in September 2025.