Key facts
- Poland and Baltic states are tightening security around critical infrastructure.
- Concerns exist that Russia may stage a "false flag" attack using Ukrainian drones.
- Intelligence assessments suggest Russia is planning potential attacks on infrastructure in Russia or the Baltics and Poland.
- The primary concern is the potential "political chaos" such an attack could trigger within NATO.
- Poland's energy company Orlen is exploring alternative gas import routes.
- Forged documents have appeared concerning Poland's planned nuclear power plant.
Russia's northern NATO neighbours, including Poland and the Baltic states, are significantly enhancing security measures around critical infrastructure such as dams, power plants, and natural gas facilities. This heightened vigilance stems from mounting concerns that Moscow might orchestrate a "false flag" attack, potentially using Ukrainian-made drones, to provoke a response from NATO.
Lithuania has explicitly stated that Russia is considering such a staged incident, with Poland, Latvia, and Estonia also warning of potential sabotage aimed at testing NATO's collective defense capabilities, particularly at a time when the commitment of the United States to the alliance is under scrutiny. Lithuanian Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas emphasized that the country is not being naive and is actively taking measures to protect its infrastructure, including deploying the military to secure its liquefied natural gas import terminal, oil products terminal, a key power link with Poland, and the Kruonis Pumped Storage hydro plant.
Latvia's Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs confirmed increased security around all critical infrastructure, noting a higher likelihood of hybrid threats. Russia has previously accused the Baltic states of allowing Ukrainian drones to operate from their territory and has threatened retaliation, fueling fears of a retaliatory false-flag operation.
Intelligence assessments from the region suggest that Russian military and domestic intelligence agencies are planning a possible false-flag attack, to be carried out within days of approval from top leadership, including President Vladimir Putin. The primary concern appears to be not the immediate impact of such an attack, but rather the "political chaos" it could create within NATO, prompting debates among European members and the United States about how to respond.
In Poland, the top oil and gas company Orlen is reportedly examining alternative gas import routes in case its usual supply lines are compromised. The company imports a significant portion of the country's gas through its liquefied natural gas terminal and an undersea pipeline from Norway. The infrastructure owner, Gaz-System, is operating under "increased vigilance." Additionally, Poland's state-owned developer of its first nuclear power plant has reported the appearance of forged company documents, potentially linked to sabotage, and is investigating with special services. Poland's power grid operator and an arm of the military have also increased security around a power link with Ukraine.
Across Europe, mysterious drones have been detected, including one carrying explosives found at Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany, which the Interior Minister termed a hybrid attack. Analysts suggest that Russia's alleged false-flag operations could be an attempt to regain the upper hand, given its forces are bogged down in Ukraine and facing economic pressure from Ukrainian strikes. The aim, according to one analyst, might be to demonstrate that if Europe does not accept Moscow's demands, destabilization will spread.