Key facts
- Iran's political landscape shows a growing rift between factions seeking a deal with the U.S. and those opposing it.
- President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf are reportedly seeking an agreement with Washington.
- Principlists are intensifying pressure on Pezeshkian and Ghalibaf, fearing political marginalization.
- Leaked videos and audio files have emerged, with conflicting claims about the Supreme Leader's stance on negotiations and leadership.
- Ultraconservatives are reportedly using protests to obstruct negotiations and increase the political cost for dealmakers.
Iran's political scene is marked by a growing division between factions advocating for a deal with the United States and those determined to prevent one. President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, both seeking to end nearly six months of hostilities, are facing intensified pressure from principlists. These hardline conservatives fear that any agreement could diminish their political influence and impact Iran's future direction.
The internal struggle has been amplified by leaked media. A video featuring Mohammad-Bagher Kharrazi, brother-in-law of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's brother, claimed that the Supreme Leader would accept President Pezeshkian's resignation if he threatened it again and that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had been sidelined from negotiations. The office of the supreme leader denied these remarks without directly naming Kharrazi.
Subsequently, an audio file emerged with Ali Saeedi, a conservative figure close to the Khamenei office, stating that the Supreme Leader supports negotiations and criticizes hard-line opposition. Saeedi also claimed Khamenei supports Ghalibaf, comparing him to the late Quds Force commander Haj Qassem Soleimani.
Sources suggest that principlists did not initially favor Mojtaba Khamenei for leadership, preferring candidates like the late Ebrahim Raisi or Mohammad Mahdi Mirbaqeri. Principlists have also reportedly targeted members of Khamenei's inner circle, accusing them of corruption to undermine their credibility. Despite these internal dynamics, Khamenei reportedly continues to trust Ghalibaf, with his continued role in U.S. negotiations indicating the Supreme Leader's confidence.
Analysts believe principlists aim to isolate Pezeshkian and Ghalibaf politically, hoping to turn the Supreme Leader against them. Ultraconservatives are expected to continue obstructing negotiations, viewing any U.S. agreement as a threat to their influence by empowering moderate forces. Lacking sufficient power within key institutions, they are reportedly mobilizing their grassroots base through protests to increase the political cost for the dealmakers.