Key facts
- Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, stated the world is witnessing a turning point in Shia Islam.
- Baghaei compared the assassinated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to Imam Hussain and Donald Trump to the tyrannical caliph Yazid.
- Donald Trump described Iranians as "garbage", "cancer", "devils", and "scum" at the NATO summit in Turkey.
- There was an exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz.
- The US revoked its sanctions waiver on Iran's oil exports.
- Iran insists that ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz must pay a security fee.
The atmosphere in Iran remains highly charged following the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and amid escalating grievances with the United States. At a press briefing, Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei declared the world was witnessing a turning point in Shia Islam, comparing Khamenei to Imam Hussain and Donald Trump to the tyrannical caliph Yazid. Baghaei portrayed Iran as a victim of an epochal struggle for independence, asserting the nation's resilience despite threats.
Donald Trump, at a NATO summit in Turkey, described Iranians as "garbage", "cancer", "devils", and "scum," and deemed further talks a waste of time. While some may see the recent military flare-up, including an exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz, as a result of unfortunate timing, analysts suggest a more complex dynamic. Optimism for a de-escalation may be misplaced, as military decisions might be taking precedence over diplomatic ones.
Former US national security adviser Eric Brewer suggested Trump might be facing consequences for a previous agreement that postponed issues. Vali Nasr, author of Iran's Grand Strategy, warned that the current escalation could end the memorandum of understanding (MOU) designed for peace talks, stating Iran might prepare for war if it believes the US seeks control of the Strait of Hormuz. Ellie Geranmayeh, a Middle East analyst, highlighted the sequencing problem: Iran wants tangible gains like sanctions relief before ceding leverage over the strait, while Trump faces pressure from Republican hawks to resume conflict if the strait is not reopened.
Baghaei insisted the MOU allows for continued Iranian control of the strait for at least 60 days and views US-Omani attempts to create a new southern route as incompatible with the agreement, accusing the US of interfering. Iranian diplomats see any attempt to reopen the strait as undermining their primary weapon for securing sanctions relief and a ceasefire in Lebanon. Conversely, the US maintains that reopening the strait was the MOU's main objective, not subject to an Iranian veto.
Further complicating the crisis, the US revoked its sanctions waiver on Iran's oil exports just 17 days after its introduction, removing a key tangible benefit for Iran. Efforts are underway to establish a joint notification system for ships transiting the strait, involving Iran and Gulf Cooperation Council members. However, Iran's insistence on a security fee for all transiting ships, a proposal widely rejected, remains a significant obstacle. The current constraint on a return to full-scale war is the memory of its past failure.