Key facts
- Southeast Asian diplomats are expressing skepticism and uncertainty about US engagement.
- Concerns are rising about the impact of US sanctions on regional banks, insurers, and traders.
- Countries are debating the risks of overdependence on the US versus seeking alternatives.
- China's growing military footprint and actions in the South China Sea and near Taiwan remain a concern.
- Nations are actively seeking to diversify partnerships beyond the US and China.
The ongoing conflict in Iran and the accompanying sanctions regime are testing Southeast Asia's faith in the United States, according to several diplomats from ASEAN nations. These diplomats express a growing sentiment of skepticism and uncertainty regarding US engagement, questioning its reliability and predictability compared to China.
One diplomat noted that while Chinese officials may be perceived as arrogant, they are seen as more dependable and less demanding than the US. This sentiment fuels an internal discussion within the region about whether to align more closely with China. The sanctions ecosystem surrounding the Iran conflict has also raised concerns among regional banks, insurers, and trading houses, who fear inadvertently violating US designations.