Key facts
- India's indigenous Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) system has been delayed by eight years.
- Pakistan operates three Agosta-90B submarines with AIP and is acquiring eight advanced Yuan-class submarines from China.
- By 2030, Pakistan is projected to have eleven AIP-equipped submarines.
- India's conventional submarine fleet is aging, with many vessels over 30 years old.
- India has three operational nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) and plans for more, potentially adopting a continuous at-sea deterrence posture.
India's submarine modernization program is facing significant delays, particularly with its indigenous Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) system, while regional adversaries like Pakistan and China are rapidly advancing their underwater warfare capabilities. The eight-year delay in India's AIP system, originally due in 2017, has become a symbol of broader challenges in its naval modernization efforts. This technological gap is concerning as Pakistan has already fielded AIP-equipped submarines and is set to significantly expand its fleet with advanced Chinese-built Yuan-class (Hangor-class) submarines, all featuring AIP technology. By 2030, Pakistan is expected to operate eleven AIP-equipped submarines, a substantial increase that could alter the underwater balance in South Asia.
Meanwhile, India's conventional submarine fleet is aging, with many vessels over three decades old and facing increasing maintenance challenges. The Indian Navy is also developing its nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) program, with three operational SSBNs and a fourth expected by 2027. Developments suggest India is moving towards a continuous at-sea deterrence posture, supported by facilities like the one at Mauritius’ Agalega Island, which could allow for round-the-clock patrols. The delays in India's AIP system and the aging of its conventional fleet, contrasted with Pakistan's rapid naval advancements, raise concerns about the regional underwater deterrent equation.