Key facts
- Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz may take months to return to normal, even after a peace deal is signed.
- The closure, initiated after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, led to significant vessel backlogs and a global energy crisis.
- Clearing potential Iranian mines could take up to six months, impacting insurance costs and transit times.
- Different vessel types are expected to resume normal operations at different paces, with LNG carriers last in September.
Shipping operations in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to take several months to return to normal, even after a peace deal is signed between Iran and the United States, according to CMA CGM, a French shipping company. Rodolphe Saade, chairman and CEO of CMA CGM, told Les Echos that the group has had several vessels stuck inside the Gulf since the conflict began at the end of February.
Analysts from shipping analytics firm Kpler suggest a phased recovery from May to September, depending on vessel type, if Iran allows free passage. The Pentagon has indicated that clearing potential Iranian mines could take up to six months after any peace deal is implemented. During the 1990s Gulf War, U.S. coalition forces had access to a map to clear mines laid by Iraqi forces, but it is unclear if such a map exists this time.
The Strait of Hormuz is currently in a restricted and controlled phase, with Iran allowing vessels to transit only by permission. Even ships from countries considered friendly to Tehran are not moving freely. War-risk insurance premiums have surged significantly, and mine clearance is a prerequisite for insurers to lower these costs, potentially keeping transit expenses elevated for an extended period.
The backlog of vessels and containers caused by the closure will create further delays at trans-shipment ports such as Jebel Ali, Colombo, Singapore, and Tanjung Pelepas, which are already operating at elevated capacity. Kpler data indicates that tankers and dry bulk carriers may recover by early July, container ships by August, and LNG carriers not until September, due to their high insurance risks and lower risk tolerance.