Key facts
- Gulf Arab states are seeking China's help to secure shipping lanes amid escalating regional conflict.
- This pivot is driven by frustration with U.S. power and the war's impact on energy exports and security.
- China is Iran's largest trading partner and a major buyer of Gulf oil.
- Beijing has maintained close communication with parties involved but has refrained from publicly challenging Tehran's threats to shipping.
- Gulf governments are reassessing China's role as a security partner, recognizing its focus on commercial ties over security commitments.
- China's strategy of avoiding security commitments and taking sides is reinforced by the current regional chaos.
Gulf Arab states are increasingly turning to China to exert economic pressure on Iran to secure vital shipping lanes amid escalating regional conflict, driven by frustration with the perceived limitations of American power and the war's impact on their energy exports and security. This shift signifies a reassessment of China's role in the region, moving beyond expectations of it becoming a security partner.
China's position as both a major buyer of Gulf oil and Iran's largest trading partner presents a unique leverage, though Beijing has largely maintained a neutral stance, avoiding public challenges to Tehran's threats to shipping. While China has engaged in diplomatic efforts, including calls by Foreign Minister Wang Yi and talks by special envoy Zhai Jun, its overriding priority appears to be preserving relationships across the region and avoiding diplomatic fallout by openly siding with any camp. This approach has led Gulf states to realize that China is unlikely to counterbalance the United States in ensuring regional security, despite significant trade and investment ties.
Prior to the Iran war, Gulf Cooperation Council countries exported nearly four million barrels of crude oil to China daily, and Gulf trade with China reached nearly $300 billion in 2024. Regional sovereign wealth funds have also invested heavily in China. However, China's wait-and-see approach and unwillingness to use its leverage to contain the conflict have tempered expectations. Gulf governments are now faced with choosing between a more fully embracing a volatile United States or searching for new partners, as Beijing's strategy of avoiding security commitments appears to be reinforced by the current regional chaos.