Key facts
- The developing El Niño weather system could push 50 million people into acute hunger by the end of next year.
- This adds to the hundreds of millions already facing dangerous levels of hunger.
- Central and South America, the Caribbean, and southern Africa are expected to be worst affected.
- South and Southeast Asia may face reduced rainfall, impacting agriculture.
- The World Food Programme is budgeting at least $80 million for anticipatory relief efforts.
The rapidly developing El Niño weather system is projected to push an additional 50 million people into acute hunger before the end of next year, according to the UN's World Food Programme (WFP). This forecast exacerbates the existing crisis for hundreds of millions already facing dangerous levels of hunger due to factors like drought in Africa and pressure on food prices from the war in Iran.
Even a less severe El Niño could push many countries past a critical threshold, increasing the number of acutely food-insecure individuals by over a fifth from the current 225 million across 45 countries. Central and South America, the Caribbean, and southern Africa are anticipated to bear the brunt of the impact. In South and Southeast Asia, reduced rainfall could severely affect agriculture and farmers.
This year's El Niño, a recurring Pacific Ocean weather phenomenon, is shaping up to be one of the strongest in at least 70 years, with some unofficial reports calling it a "super El Niño." Experts note that the climate crisis is significantly amplifying its effects and strength, potentially contributing to record-breaking global temperatures this year or in 2027.
While private forecasters have alerted to El Niño's impact on global food prices, the WFP's report is the first to detail its global hunger implications. The WFP is preparing anticipatory relief efforts and early warning systems, with a budget of at least $80 million. The full consequences may unfold over several seasons, with the most severe impacts in southern Africa expected during the 2027-2028 lean season.
Despite a potentially good harvest from the previous year, upward pressure on food prices from the Middle East conflict remains. The WFP aims to mitigate the current El Niño's impact, hoping its updated anticipatory actions will be more effective than in 2015-16, when 60 million to 100 million people were affected by acute food insecurity. However, funding shortfalls for data collection have hampered these efforts.
Concerns also extend to global food prices and access, as decisions by exporting countries to halt exports could create regional problems. In the UK and Europe, farmers are already warning of harvest impacts due to extreme heat and lack of rainfall, bracing retailers for higher prices.