Human-caused climate change made extreme fire conditions in Spain 20 times more likely and doubled the chances for France, scientists calculated. The World Weather Attribution group assessed how hot, dry, and windy conditions have changed due to greenhouse gas emissions.
The findings underscore the direct link between human-caused climate change and the increasing severity and frequency of extreme weather events like wildfires, highlighting the urgent need for both emissions reduction and proactive fire management strategies.
Human-caused climate change has significantly increased the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions that fueled recent wildfires in Spain and France, according to scientists from the World Weather Attribution group. Their analysis found that climate change made the hot, dry, and windy conditions driving blazes in central Spain 20 times more likely, and doubled the chances for southwestern France. Greenhouse gas emissions have raised the planet's average temperature by approximately 1.4 Celsius above pre-industrial levels. In the current climate, such intense fires are estimated to occur once every 20 years in southwestern France and once every six years in central Spain. The scientists noted that a pattern of a wet winter followed by a dry spring and summer is an increasingly important driver of Europe's wildfire risk, leaving forests with highly flammable fuel. Spain has experienced its wettest January in 25 years followed by its hottest summer on record, while France is enduring its fourth heatwave of the year. The analysis suggests that reducing wildfire risk requires not only emergency response but also risk-sensitive landscape planning and management, such as clearing dried-out vegetation.