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Jacinta Allan expected to face leadership challenge after Labor factions meet

Created at 26 Jul · 10:51 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan is reportedly facing a leadership challenge as Labor factions met to discuss her support. While a challenge is expected when parliament resumes, the path remains unclear, with Deputy Premier Ben Carroll indicating he would only run if the position were vacant.

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Who's Involved

Jacinta Allan
Victorian Premier facing potential leadership challenge
Ben Carroll
Deputy Premier and potential leadership challenger
Sonya Kilkenny
Attorney General and supporter of Jacinta Allan
Daniel Andrews
Former Victorian Premier who resigned in September 2023

↳ Why This Matters

The potential leadership challenge to Jacinta Allan could destabilize the Victorian Labor government just months before a state election, impacting policy direction and public confidence.

Key facts

  • Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan is expected to face a leadership challenge.
  • Labor factions met to discuss Allan's support within the caucus.
  • The factions reportedly concluded that Allan does not have majority support.
  • Deputy Premier Ben Carroll has stated he would only contest the leadership if the position becomes vacant.
  • There is a possibility that ministers will ask Allan to stand down before a Tuesday caucus meeting.
  • Allan became premier in September 2023 after Daniel Andrews resigned.

Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan is anticipated to face a leadership challenge when state parliament reconvenes this week, just four months before a state election. Factional leaders from Labor's left and right convened on Sunday night to assess Allan's standing within the caucus, with reports suggesting she no longer commands majority support.

The path to a leadership contest remains uncertain, as Deputy Premier Ben Carroll has reportedly informed colleagues that he would only consider running if the leadership position were to become vacant. One proposed strategy by the factions involves a group of ministers approaching Allan on Monday, prior to a scheduled cabinet meeting, to inform her of her loss of support and urge her to resign before a potential vote during Tuesday's caucus meeting.

However, if Allan were to contest a leadership ballot, a rule change implemented after the federal Labor instability of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era would necessitate a vote by the entire Victorian Labor membership, a process that could extend for weeks and has not been tested at the state level. A minister aligned with Allan dismissed the leaked meeting as an attempt to generate momentum for a spill, asserting that the Premier is "not going anywhere." Attorney General Sonya Kilkenny, a key supporter, characterized the leadership speculation as "idle gossip" that distracts from governing.

Allan assumed the premiership following Daniel Andrews' resignation in September 2023. Prior to parliament's winter break in June, momentum had been building for a leadership spill, fueled by poor polling, Allan's low personal approval ratings, rising support for One Nation, and concerns regarding organized crime's alleged infiltration of the state's Big Build project through the construction union. Allan, who previously oversaw transport infrastructure for the Big Build, has rejected calls for a royal commission into the matter.

At a press conference on June 15, Carroll had publicly ruled out a challenge, looking Allan in the eye and stating his support for her to be a "world-class premier." If elected leader, Carroll is understood to be prepared to immediately call for a royal commission, address the pay dispute with public school teachers, and bolster the party's economic standing.

Frequently asked questions

The next Victorian state election is scheduled for four months from the time of this report.

The Deputy Premier, Ben Carroll, is considered her most likely opponent.

If Allan contests a ballot, the entire Victorian Labor membership would vote, potentially leading to a weeks-long process.

Poor polling, low personal approval ratings, rising support for One Nation, and concerns over organized crime's alleged infiltration of the Big Build project are contributing factors.

What Happens Next

01Parliament resumes this week.
02A caucus meeting is scheduled for Tuesday.
03Ministers may approach Allan on Monday to discuss her leadership.

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Cadence

How It Developed

Victorian Labor factions met to discuss Jacinta Allan's leadership.
Factions reportedly agreed Allan lacks majority caucus support.
Deputy Premier Ben Carroll indicated he would only run if the leadership position was vacant.
Ministers may approach Allan to request her resignation before a Tuesday caucus meeting.
Allan became premier following Daniel Andrews' resignation in September 2023.
Momentum for a spill had been building before the June winter break due to poor polling and concerns over the Big Build project.
Carroll previously stated he would not challenge Allan for leadership.
Carroll would reportedly call for a royal commission and address pay disputes if leader.

Sources

T1
Jacinta Allan expected to face leadership challenge after Labor factions meetThe Guardian

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