Key facts
- Marine Le Pen is now eligible to run for French president in 2027 after a court ruling.
- Le Pen's eligibility is complicated by a sentence involving electronic monitoring.
- Jordan Bardella, the current RN president, is also a strong contender for the party's presidential ticket.
- The National Rally party has shifted its stance on Russia since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
- Bardella has opposed sending weapons and troops to Ukraine and voted against a pro-Ukraine EU report.
- Polls indicate Le Pen and Bardella would perform similarly in a presidential election.
A recent court ruling has complicated the leadership picture for France's far-right National Rally (RN) party, potentially impacting its stance on support for Ukraine. While Marine Le Pen, the longtime face of the party, has had a legal obstacle to her presidential candidacy removed, she remains under a sentence that includes electronic monitoring, raising questions about her ability to campaign for the 2027 election.
This situation has elevated Jordan Bardella, the RN's 30-year-old president, as a leading contender for the party's presidential ticket. Bardella has gained popularity and consistently polls as a strong presidential candidate. Le Pen, who inherited the party from her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, has worked to bring the RN into the political mainstream, increasing her vote share in previous presidential elections.
Historically, the RN has had Russia-friendly ties, but this stance has shifted since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Le Pen has condemned Russia's aggression, while Bardella has taken a stronger position, referring to Ukraine as an ally and denouncing Russian imperialism. However, Bardella has also rejected sending weapons and troops to Ukraine and led opposition within the European Parliament to a report supporting Ukraine's defense and EU membership path.
Analysis suggests that whether Le Pen or Bardella leads the RN ticket, their polling numbers against other candidates remain largely similar. The first round of the French presidential election is scheduled for April 18, 2027, with a runoff anticipated on May 2, 2027.